Bangladeshi infiltration: The reality check

The issue of the Bangladeshi infiltration in the bordering north-eastern States as well as in West Bengal has divided the political spectrum in two very contrasting groups. One claims that a lot of infiltration is taking place which is altering the demography of these States. Countering this very statement, the other group claims that no infiltration is taking place at all. The first group is, very obviously, Sangh Parivar and its associated organisations. The second group consists of all the other self-proclaimed secular parties of India. This write-up mainly focuses on the demographic shift in West Bengal, while raising some plausible questions on the pattern of this demographic shift.

The districts of West Bengal can be divided into two distinct groups: 1) the districts which have a higher population growth rate than the State average; and 2) the districts having a lower population growth rate than the State average. The 2001 census indicates that the population of ten districts — Uttar Dinajpur, Malda, Darjeeling, Murshidabad, North 24 Parganas, Dakshin Dinajpur, Jalpaiguri, South 24 Parganas, Nadia and Birbhum — has grown faster than the population growth of the State between 1991 and 2001.

Surprisingly, all these districts, except Birbhum and South 24 Parganas, share the border with Bangladesh. Moreover, the strategic locations of these two districts have closeness with Bangladesh.Birbhum is just around forty kilometres from the Bangladesh border. Murshidabad is located on the way from Birbhum to Bangladesh and it had the highest population growth among all the other districts during the given period.

The other noticeable thing about Murshidabad is that it is one of those districts in West Bengal which has the highest Muslim population. Another district which has a higher population growth than the State average, without having any border with Bangladesh, is South 24 Parganas. Although South 24 Parganas does not have any border with Bangladesh, it shares a direct sea route with Bangladesh.The other set of districts that have a lower population growth than the average State population growth are Hooghly, West Midnapore, East Midnapore, Howrah, Cooch Bihar, Purulia, Bardhaman, Bankura 

and Kolkata.

Interestingly, not one of these districts, except Cooch Bihar,  shares the border with Bangladesh. It is one of those districts that already have a lower population density due to its geographical location. It is a highly flood-prone area. If we look back at the data acquired during the British rule and the first decade after Independence, no significant difference is found in the growth rates of the bordering and non-bordering districts of West Bengal. The growth rate in the 1960s was similar too.

An analysis shows that the population growth of West Bengal increased from 23.1% in 1981 to 24.7% in 1991. The rate of increase in the bordering districts was in the range of 0.3% to 10.5%, while the same for the non-bordering districts was in the range of 1.2% to 4.3%.This clearly indicates that the population growth in the bordering districts was higher than non-bordering districts. The 2001 and 2011 censuses showed the same data, where the population growth of bordering districts was falling with very less percentage points while the non-bordering districts was falling with comparatively higher percentage points.

An analysis of the districts based on religion shows that the Muslim population growth has been very high in the bordering districts. For instance, during the period 1981-2001, within the span of just twenty years, the Muslim population has increased by 128.9% in Darjeeling. Similarly, the Muslim population in Jalpaiguri, Murshidabad and North 24 Parganas has increased by 90.6%, 72.2% and 74% respectively, during the same period.

According to the 2011 census, the  percentage of females in the prime child-bearing age group, that is, 15 to 44 years, is 37.6% of the total female population, out of which, approximately 75% of the women are married, which means that approximately 25% of the total female population in their prime child-bearing age are married.It means that only one-eighth of the total population, both male and female, might be married and can bear children. Further on, if we want the population to double within twenty years, this fraction will have to give birth to at least eight additional children, irrespective of the number of children they already have. During these twenty years, other females will also be capable of giving birth, but simultaneously, some will stop or become incapable of doing so, because of infertility, tubectomy, and other social restrictions like widowhood and divorces.

A rough estimate would indicate that on an average, Muslim women will have to produce twelve children each to double the population within twenty years. In order to increase the population by 75% and 125%, each Muslim woman will have to produce ten and fourteen children respectively on average. This of course is very unrealistic. Statistically, if the population is increasing by 75% and 129% in just 20 years, either of these two has to be true: either Muslim women are, on an average, giving birth to ten to fourteen children or Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration is taking place. The first one, being very unlikely, clearly makes a case for Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration.

It is not just a mere coincidence that the population growth of the bordering districts has been uniformly higher than the non-bordering districts, especially since the 1971 census, while the population growth was not at all different for the bordering as well as non-bordering districts in all the censuses held prior to 1971. It is also not a coincidence that most of the border districts are showing an enormous increase in the population of Muslims only. The population growth of many States started declining after 1971. This must have occurred because India was in the second stage of a demographic transition where almost all the districts of India started witnessing lower mortality rates due to an expansion of the health facilities and also lower birth rates. West Bengal was the only exception to this trend. Instead of a fall, the population growth rose, as suggested by the data collected in 1990.

This is a definite suggestion of a case of infiltration in West Bengal. The above analysis implies that infiltration has actually occurred in the neighbouring districts of West Bengal. Despite a thousand denials from the ruling parties, this is the truth.

This has not just been limited to West Bengal. The demographic profiles of all the neighbouring eastern and north-eastern States show that the religious composition of most of the districts of India bordering neighbour countries is getting largely similar to the neighbouring countries and deviating from its own religious composition.

It generally happens that when we move from one part of the State to another, the culture is found to be similar to the culture of the neighbouring State. When it comes to India, one can easily notice increasing similarity with its neighbouring country. For instance, India’s bordering districts are becoming increasingly Muslim-dominated, while on the contrary the Bangladesh’s border districts with India are becoming Hindu-less. Akin to this is the case with bordering districts of J&K, Rajasthan, and north-eastern States.

It does not matter if alterations in the religious demography are occurring in their normal course, but it becomes a concern if there are some deliberations and unpredictability to it. What should be feared is the probability of what happened to the people of J&K to recur in the case of people of West Bengal. The entire country has witnessed the way minorities have been driven out of the Valley from Kashmir. Now just a proposal of settling the minority refugees in a separate township can affect Kashmir and cause anything from hunger strikes to the killing of innocents.  

The separatists neither want to allow the minorities to live with them nor allow them to settle away from them. Unfortunately, no human rights activists or secular academia like Amartya Sen, Swami Agnivesh and Arundhati Roy or even secular parties shall ever speak for them even if the indigenous population were driven out of the State by the Bangladeshi infiltrators.

The need of the hour is to identify these Bangladeshi infiltrators and send them back to their country. If not, they will be a threat to the peace of the country. In addition to that, they may also get exploited by the Indian politicians. And so, they will have to serve these politicians due to the insecurity caused by the illegal status of their citizenship.

(Anish Gupta teaches Economics at Delhi University. He can be reached at pioneer.article@gmail.com)