The BJP must build on the Modi factor and focus on winnable seats rather than spread itself thin, writes Debashish Banerjee
The recent Assembly polls have established, in no uncertain terms, a rejection of Congress rule. It has also highlighted a clamour for radical change against the ruling parties and their conventional norms of operation based on largesse to particular vote banks in combination with electoral manipulations at the expense of good governance. So much so, that the result in Delhi has shown that voters are prepared to back a convincing and viable third option, however untested, rather than support the national party.
Generally, State elections are won and lost on local issues and candidate selection rather than non-State factors; except when there is a ‘wave’. The recent elections in the ‘cow-belt' have demonstrated a distinct wave in favour of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. This has benefitted the party in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party wave upset the poll forecasts.
The question here is while giving due cognisance to Ms Vasundhara Raje's charisma and leadership quality as evidenced in the past, is that enough to explain the BJP’s unprecedented 80 per cent-plus sweep in RajasthanIJ Similarly, while giving due credit to Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan's quiet but firm way of good governance, can that alone explain the additional 22 seats won by the BJP over what it held in 2008IJ Finally, while giving due respect to the low profile chawal-wale baba's wisdom, can we adequately explain how the BJP managed holds its ground in Chhattisgarh where it faced some strong negative factors and a resurgent CongressIJ The answer lies with Mr Modi.
Even in Delhi, where the BJP was riddled with internal disputes leading to a last minute announcement of the chief ministerial candidate and a somewhat flawed selection of candidates and also had to face the dynamic penetration of the AAP, it is the Modi factor which somewhat saved the day for the party which managed to almost retain its voter base. In fact, the post-poll analysis published in a reputed daily on December 11, demonstrates that in 10 constituencies with a thin margin of victory — in six of these, the margin was less than 1,000 votes — the BJP won two and the AAP bagged six. Perhaps with a little bit of luck, the BJP could have managed the magic number of 36.
The voting pattern in the recent polls reveals a departure from traditional trends which might benefit the BJP. Earlier, the party drew its support primarily from the urban areas. But in 2013, it received almost equal support from the rural voters. The numerically-strong young group of voters (below the age of 45) was also drawn towards the BJP. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP overwhelmed the Congress even though the Rajputs voted, as they traditionally do, for the latter — possibly because of the influence of many Congress leaders hailing from the Rajput or Thakur community. The credit for these new voting trends goes primarily to Mr Modi.
So, where does the BJP go from hereIJ It must take cognisance of the fact that the rejection of the Congress and the AAP’s success will encourage the ‘Third Front’ idea to become a cohesive consortium leading to a fractured mandate for the lok Sabha in 2014. A hung Parliament will not be good either for the nation or for any party. Assuming that the UPA will not be able to overcome the strong anti-incumbency in the next few months, the best bet for the BJP and the NDA is to concentrate their efforts in the 300 odd seats they are most likely to win, rather than over-reach across the nation. If the BJP can notch up around 200-plus wins, polarisation within some of the regional parties will allow for a greater NDA to take shape and rule India.
If the Modi-factor has worked in the State polls, it should make an even greater impact in the lok Sabha election. Without further delay, the BJP must take the required steps towards positioning itself effectively in potential constituencies across the nation, with Mr Modi as its undisputed leader.