The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit — which took place in Kazakhstan’s Astana on June 8-9 — is going to have a major impact on geopolitical structure of Eurasia and Asia. The summit took place against the background of extension of full membership to both India and Pakistan. Second, a month back, China unveiled its “much-hyped” geo-political doctrine: One Belt One Road (OBOR), through which it intends to bring SCO member states under its ambit. Third, Afghanistan, which is enjoying a status of observer in the august body, is facing a growing threat to its security from Pakistan’s notorious ISI as alleged by top Afghan officials. Only last fortnight, Kabul experienced a series of explosions which shook the capital city. Fourth, the Summit meeting demonstrated that Russia is not going to shed its “sphere of influence” to China in the Eurasian space (can be inferred from President Putin’s speech in Astana) as the former is trying to expand its sphere of influence through its own Silk Road Project known as Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Finally, the Astana Summit provided an opportunity to assess its own role in the Eurasian region since its inception as SCO grouping.
Since spelling out its Charter in 2002, this Eurasian body has covered a long road from an informal organisation to resolve border dispute among the former Soviet states and China to becoming a regional group in addressing multilateral problems. Over the years, this regional grouping tried to play a role in checkmating West’s penetration into the former Soviet space though at a rhetorical level. Because of the growing hobnobbing between Russia and China, many western scholars called this body as “NATO of the East”. This happened despite the fact that other members of SCO, like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, used one or other pretext in joining the Western alliance on individual capacity. Though America withdrew its bases from Central Asia, Central Asian states, including Turkmenistan, joined the America led P5+ 1. Similarly, Russia is constantly promoting its own geopolitical agenda through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Even Central Asian states, like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, are members of EEU, and Tajikistan is thinking to join the same. Since there is a conflict of interest among the member-countries with regards to expanding their sphere of influence, a question arises as how far this regional body will be able to address the security issues concerning the SCO countries. Earlier, there was convergence among both China and Russia to quell NATO’s expansionism, which forced them to bring together, now with changing realities as well as low oil prices, there is going to be a new kind of geopolitical equation which will shape Russia-China strategic partnership. The unveiling of OBOR initiative by China in which most of the SCO member-states are participating will also influence the functioning of this organisation. The OBOR initiative, though at an official level, aims at promoting economic development of the member-countries but a recent UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) says, as quoted in the newspapers, in the longer-run it may derail the economy of neighbours more particularly the Central Asian states. By giving aid and controlling the natural resources of this region, the Central Asian states are becoming the hostage to Chinese economy. Same is the case of Russia. It has been alleged that the Siberia and Far East is acting as a “resource appendage” to China. This can be inferred from the spate of energy deals Russia signed with China for exploring energy from this region. The UN study has also highlighted that OBOR might accentuate geopolitical rivalry in the region. Despite the existence of geopolitical faultiness as noted above, the SCO Astana Summit brought out a comprehensive declaration which emphasised on “polycentric model of the world order ... creating an effective global and regional architecture of security and cooperation, and forming a human community linked by a common destiny.”
The second issue, which adds gist to the Astana Summit, is the growing radicalisation that is taking place in this region. All most all member-states of SCO are facing the problem of radicalism, cross-border terrorism over the years. Russia’s experience in Chechnya, China’s Xinjiang region and Central Asian states’ fight against terrorism, extremism is well known. During the “Operation Enduring Freedom”, Central Asian region acted as a hub for carrying out all kinds of radical forces. One may add here that radical groups like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), and the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement of Xinjiang are quite influential in this space. long back as reported, these radical groups along with Taliban took active steps to form Islamic Movement of Turkestan. One of the primary aims of SCO since its inception is to quell terrorism, extremism and radical fanatics. To institutionalise fight against terrorism, they formed a regional anti-terrorist centre at Tashkent, which conducted anti-terror exercises. One may highlight here that most of the terrorist groups operating in the SCO member-countries are funded, supported and trained by Pakistan and Taliban. Over the years, Pakistan has also become a hub of international terrorist activities and it is showing the symptom of a “failed state”. It is quite intriguing that how Pakistan will conduct itself in the SCO grouping as a member when it is playing a key role in aiding and abetting terrorism in Eurasia. Even more surprising is the fact that China, which accused Pakistan of sheltering Uighur terrorists on number of occasions, has actively supported latter’s membership in the SCO body. Russia is also engaging itself with Pakistan in the name of pursuing pragmatic foreign policy despite the fact that Kremlin is aware of Islamabad’s role in fostering terrorism. The newly formed radical ISIS is also threatening the security situation of Eurasia. The Summit gave call for “combating terrorism, separatism and extremism, and the spread of related ideology and propaganda, cross-border organised crime”. One heartening aspect of SCO Summit of Astana is that India’s position on fight against radicalism, terrorism and extremism was adopted at the final Astana Declaration. Adding that “Terrorism is a major threat to humanity”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Summit meeting called for “coordinated efforts” among the member countries to end the menace of “terrorism”.
However, question arises regarding how far China will end its “double stand” on fight against terrorism. Will the member states reprimand Pakistan for its dubious role in providing sanctuary to terroristsIJ Though Chinese President avoided a direct one-to-one meeting with the Pakistan Prime Minister, this is not enough. If Pakistan continues its policy of supporting terrorism than the SCO body should show the door to Islamabad.
The Astana Summit brought out a comprehensive plan for economic cooperation among the member-countries, but this Summit failed to underscore the importance of energy cooperation among the member countries. Although, Modi in his address to the august gathering emphasised on “connectivity” within the SCO member-states to further cooperation and highlighted the importance of International North-South Transport Corridor Project (INSTC) to ensure “sustainability” in economic growth. The SCO Summit meeting would have been an ideal forum for pressurising Pakistan to create a favourable condition for operationalisation of TAPI pipeline route cementing energy cooperation between South and Central Asia. Unfortunately, China’s interest to monopolise SCO member countries’ energy is one of the major factor hindering development of positive energy cooperation among the member-countries. One may add here that OBOR is an instrument to achieve the Chinese imperial goal of harnessing energy in the neighbouring SCO countries.
The recent visit of Modi to Russia against the backdrop of the SCO Summit provided an ideal opportunity to discuss some of the issues related to SCO. The participation in SCO will provide India an opportunity to strategise its relationship with the member states. At the same time, New Delhi has also pushed its economic connectivity project in the SCO Summit, which includes operationalisation of the INSTC project. This project is a major developmental corridor linking India with Eurasia through Iran which can bring peace and prosperity to the region. Second, by India’s participation, the issues at SCO Summit meeting will be addressed more democratically and it will checkmate growing Chinese clout over this body. Third, the member countries, particularly Central Asian member-states, will be benefited immensely from India’s experience of handling extremism and cross-border terrorism, which it is confronting over a number of years. Finally, SCO, to make it more relevant in the Asian and Eurasian region, can broaden its membership to countries like Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. This will add new dynamism to this Eurasian body.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU)