None of the State’s traditional players is in a strong position, and the emergence of new parties has complicated the electoral equation
Andhra Pradesh, with its 42 lok Sabha seats, has always had a role in the formation of the Union Government. In the past two decades, both the Telugu Desam Party and the Congress have been crucial to the Government in New Delhi. While the TDP was the lifeline of the NDA Government, the Congress won many seats in Andhra Pradesh during the 2004 and 2009 polls which contributed to the tally of UPA1 and UPA2. Now, with the bifurcation of the State, the Congress is on the back foot.
Andhra Pradesh is in a peculiar position as it is voting to elect two State Assemblies and 42 Members of Parliament — for two States, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The two have emerged as distinct electoral battlegrounds. The bifurcation of the State dominates the electoral debate and this election promises to be the most extraordinary the State has witnessed since its formation in 1956. This is the last time the lok Sabha election will happen in an united Andhra Pradesh.
While stakes are high for the Congress and the TDP, both parties have shrunk in the past five years due to various reasons. If the Congress has lost its citadel, the TDP is also fighting for survival. For TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu, it is a question of now or never. He had been out of power for the past 10 years. Another defeat and it will be difficult for him to keep his flock together.
This election will also see the performance of four new parties, which have emerged in the past five years. The near policy-paralysis in the last five years caused by the sudden death of Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy and the subsequent mishandling of the party, including frequent changes in leadership and the bifurcation issue, has led to an exodus from the Congress. Today, there is a leadership vacuum in both the Telangana and Andhra regions for the Congress.
The TRS is upbeat because it was instrumental in creating a separate State for which it had been fighting from 2000. It is now playing games with the Congress whose calculations have gone awry because it was hoping that the former would merge with it. The Congress probably thought that creating Telangana would be a masterstroke — it was hoping to pocket most of the 119 Assembly seats in the region along with the 17 lok Sabha seats. While it is possible that it may still gain some parliamentary seats, the TRS may walk away with more seats in both the Assembly and lok Sabha. Now there is a multi-cornered fight between the TRS, the BJP-TDP combine, and the Congress. It is doubtful if the Congress will be able to upstage the TRS by convincing the people that it was the UPA, which delivered Telangana.
As for the TDP, its chief, who who played a major role in the NDA from 1998 to 2004, has allied with the BJP hoping to ride the Modi wave. But on the ground, workers are not happy with having to work with the BJP.
The TDP is on the slide in Telangana because of its opaque views on bifurcation. This will hurt the party while it is fighting in the Andhra region, mainly against the YSR Congress which had strongly opposed bifurcation. TDP workers are also unhappy that the party has not only welcomed those from the Congress but also given some of them tickets ignoring the claims of local workers.
The Congress is on the back foot in the Andhra region with its 25 lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats. locals are sour about the bifurcation. Former Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has rebelled and formed his own outfit — Jai Samaikyandhra Party. YSR Congress has emerged as the major challenger not only to the Congress but also the TDP. The party, launched by Mr YS Jagan Mohan Reddy has two MPs and 15 MlAs. It is expected to do well in the Andhra region. A post-poll alliance between the BJP and the YSR Congress cannot be ruled out. Mr Reddy has made the right noises against the Congress. He has said that he will never align with a party that favoured a separate Telangana.
Cinestar Pawan Kalyan’s party, the Jana Sena, is another new outfit in the fray that is expected to make an impact. The Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which had won seven of the eight seats it had contested in the last Assembly elections, also has its own vote bank.
The stakes are high in this election and a fractured polity may result in an indecisive mandate.