With the economy on a downslide, the UPA couldn't have chosen a worse time to launch its pet welfare schemes
Will the Congress’s strategy to woo the electorate with populist welfare schemes work in the 2014 electionIJ Will there be a UPA3IJ It is indeed an uphill task for the UPA2 to overcome the present scams and policy paralysis and return to power.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her advisers think that welfare measures like the food security and the land acquisition Bills, might win over the electorate, just as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the loan waiver scheme did in the 2009 election. Brushing aside objections and justifiable concerns over the added financial burden of these schemes on the public exchequer, Ms Gandhi has argued that the resources have to be found and the poor helped. She believes, just as Indira Gandhi did, that populist schemes bring power.
Before the last lok Sabha election, Ms Gandhi had initiated the MGNREGA which provided for 90 days wage-employment to rural people who volunteer to do unskilled manual work. Now comes the food Bill with a promise of cheap food grains and the land acquisition Bill to provide fair compensation to those whose land has been taken away for public buildings and factories. All these schemes constitute a welfare regimen that is huge in terms of outlay and the size of the beneficiaries.
Although the Congress is touting the MGNREGA as a big success, studies have revealed large-scale corruption wherein money meant for rural employment did not reach the intended people and fake beneficiaries claimed the fruits. Similar concerns have been voiced about the food security scheme — about the lack of storage facilities, the actual number of beneficiaries, linkages and leakages. However, the Congress is confident that the mechanism for its effective implementation will be in place in the next six months and the benefits will be there for all to see. Congress strategists are confident that this will create a huge rural vote bank in the party’s favour.
However, 2013 is not 2004 or 2009. The Congress itself was surprised by the 2009 victory, as it did not expect to perform well. It may be a big gamble this time in view of various factors. Two successive terms and a series of scams tumbling out of its closet, the Congress-led UPA regime is facing strong anti-incumbency and is in a vulnerable position. Party mandarins feel that the new food scheme will surmount all such factors and may even manage to deflect attention from the numerous scams and governance deficit of the ruling regime.
But the success of the Centrally-sponsored food scheme is dependent on effective implementation and delivery, which is the responsibility of the States. While the Congress-ruled States might be enthusiastic, non-Congress States like Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu already have in place their own welfare schemes, which are better managed and quite successful. The new scheme, therefore, directly clashes with the welfare schemes of these States. The Congress will gain only if the scheme is properly implemented across the country.
Another worrying factor is the growing disenchantment of the middle class with the Congress. The urban middle class that was charmed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s clean image and the country’s high growth rate in 2009, is vexed with the policy paralysis, the slumping economy and high inflation. Even industry captains, who were waiting for the promised reforms from the economist Prime Minister, feel let down and are looking to the BJP’s rising star, Narendra Modi, to provide some succour.
The Gujarat Chief Minister has projected himself as a friend of industry, and there are at least eight big industrial houses which are supporting his claim for the top job. These people are upset with the Congress for anti-industry Bills like the one on land acquisition.
For all the Congress’s exertions to ensure the passage of the food security Bill there are serious questions about whether the Sonia Gandhi-helmed welfare policies are on the right track. They may be good politics but bad economics, is the common refrain. Experts are of the opinion that with the economy on a downslide, and global rating agencies predicting a downgrade for India in view of its economic performance, the UPA couldn’t have chosen a worse time to launch the welfare schemes. No doubt, the Congress has taken a big risk. It remains to be seen whether it can clear the 2014 acid test.