The Defence Research and Development Organisation has been doing some good work in the development of missile technology capabilities. But it does not have to go to town patting its back and allowing China and Pakistan have an early peek into our progress
Defence Research and Development Organisation chief Avinash Chander recently said that phase-I of the indigenous ballistic missile defence programme is over and that the missile shield is ready for the protection of New Delhi, the capital of India. Phase-I is for interception of 2,000km range enemy missiles, and phase-II is for killing 5,000km range missiles. This implies that the BMD technology-demonstrator phase is over and the DRDO would ask for additional massive funds to deploy the actual weapon system. The spectacular news has reached China and Pakistan; Chinese scholars are comparing it with their own indigenous BMD programme, while Pakistan would use the development to further justify an increase in its production of ballistic and cruise missiles, and fissile material.
A BMD should seek to intercept an enemy missile simultaneously in exo-atmosphere — or outside atmosphere — (called PAD interceptor by the DRDO) and endo-atmosphere — inside atmosphere (called AAD interceptor by the DRDO) as high as possible so that if one interceptor misses the target, the other should be able to kill the latter. The height of 30km is the dividing line between atmosphere and space; below 30km is the atmosphere and above 30km is space — two medium with different characteristics. The other issue concerns the nuclear warhead. As a general rule, the nuclear chain reaction, which then cannot be controlled, gets activated at about 10km above the earth. If the nuclear warhead gets a direct hit before it drops to this low height, its nuclear core will not get activated and it will not burst. Thus, an interceptor missile with conventional warhead should only be used if it has 100 per cent accuracy to hit the bull's eye. The preferred option, therefore, is interceptor with nuclear warhead to kill a hostile nuclear missile ideally in exo-atmosphere. In this case, a nuclear blast which is extremely powerful, and not a direct hit, on the enemy's nuclear warhead will suffice to inactivate the hostile missile and the nuclear debris will remain suspended in space. In short, it should be a nuclear warhead for a nuclear warhead kill.
Against this backdrop, is phase-I of the BMD really overIJ No. Not according to what recently retired DRDO chief VK Saraswat had told me in February 2010. “The phase-I activity is to increase the altitude of interception as much as possible within the limits of the design of the interceptor. Now we are aiming to increase the altitude of PAD to more than 100km. For this, we have made certain modifications in the interceptor. This year, we will test the modified PAD (called PDV) at an altitude of over 100km for a 2,000km range missile.”
So far, the DRDO has done four successful interceptor tests, all separately, two each of PAD and AAD: PAD at an altitude of 48km and 80km and AAD at 19km and 15km. The crucial PDV test which was to be done in 2010 has still not been conducted.
Regarding the PDV test, Mr Saraswat had told me, “The modified PAD will be PDV and it will have two changes. The first stage of PAD, which is a liquid motor, will be replaced by a solid motor stage with high energy levels. The second stage ‘kill vehicle’ has also been modified for higher interception accuracy. Earlier, in PAD, we had an RF (radio frequency) seeker. Now we are introducing Imaging Infra-Red (IIR) seeker also with higher accuracy. PDV will also have a ‘divert thruster’ on the second stage to bring better accuracy and controllability. The PDV will be one meter longer than PAD.” Thus, according to Mr Saraswat, it will be irresponsible to freeze BMD phase-I without a successful PDV interceptor test.
But why has the critical PDV test been inordinately delayed and why is the DRDO rushed to declare phase-I programme as completedIJ
The PDV test has not been done because the DRDO does not have the high energy propellant needed for the interceptor to reach 100km height, and the expected outside help has not come. For 100km height, the burn rate of the propellant in the PDV rocket motor should be minimum 70mm per second; what the DRDO has is propellant with one-seventh of this desired burn rate. The DRDO had expected help from Israel, amongst the friendly nations, but so far it does not seem to have succeeded. The reason why the DRDO has declared phase-I as over is because its funds have finished and it needs more money. According to Mr Saraswat, “Our commitment is to complete the flight trials of the phase-I interceptor for the 2,000km range missile by 2011. I will have all the needed systems for BMD phase-I by 2013.”
This is not all. All four DRDO interceptions have been done against slow-speed Prithvi missiles. Pakistan does not have this category of missiles. The need for the DRDO is to demonstrate interception of Agni-2 missile with 2,000km range. Moreover, the DRDO, using conventional warhead interceptors, has remained silent on whether the interceptions were indeed direct hits. And importantly, it is not clear if India has the capability to produce small nuclear warheads to fit on slender PAD and AAD interceptors.
Alongside the enormous work that still need to be done on the interceptors, other questions remain: what about the acquisition of the target, the incoming hostile missileIJ
At present, the DRDO only has land-based long range tracking radar (lRTR) of limited capability for detection and acquisition of targets: the Israeli Green Pine 600km range radar, being called Swordfish. The DRDO has been trying to increase its range to 1,500km with Israeli help. Indications are that it is work in progress. The eventual answer lies is using space (satellites) and air for acquisition. This is at least four to five years away. Moreover, as BMD phase-II will be a continuation of work on phase-I, it is important that the first phase should not be declared completed prematurely.
Interceptors for phase-II will need more agility, higher energy and higher speed. For example, the present AAD has speed between Mach 4 and 5, which is being called high supersonic. The next step AAD-1 will need speeds of Mach 6 to 8, which is completely hypersonic. Moreover, the endo-atmospheric interceptor will require to achieve 30km altitude. Even as the DRDO continues work on the design of phase-II interceptors, it should focus on acquisition of propellant for the PDV test, and putting the command and control systems in place. This is fundamental to the BMD programme.
And importantly, the DRDO should curb the urge to seek publicity on this programme which Pakistan and China will be eager to exploit to their advantage. With so much at stake, should the DRDO have declared BMD phase-I as overIJ
(The writer is a former Indian Army officer and now Editor, FORCE, a newsmagazine on national security)