The ‘Bharat Nirman' advertisement, reminiscent of NDA's ‘India Shining' campaign, attempts to showcase the ruling dispensation's achievements
When he took over in 2009 as Prime Minister for the second time, Mr Manmohan Singh would not have dreamt that there would be demand for his ouster. His Government enters its ninth year next week. It should have been a joyous occasion but it is not so. He gave himself six out of 10 in 2005 after completing a year in office, but would be the first to admit that today it will not cross four. He was a successful Finance Minister earlier and Prime Minister for the past nine years, a record for a non-Nehru-Gandhi person. But there is little cheer as 2012-2013 is perhaps the worst time for the Congress and the UPA2, and the reason why the Government has launched the ‘Bharat Nirman’ advertisement blitz showcasing its achievements since 2004, and not just 2012-2013.
This is reminiscent of the NDA’s failed ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004. A colossal waste of taxpayers’ money, the ‘Bharat Nirman’ advertisement attempts to negate the reality, including stability, performance and growth, as it is today, although it was true during the UPA1.
The reality is that for the past four years the UPA2 has been living through a nightmarish experience. Two of its valuable allies — the Trinamool Congress and the DMK — quit the coalition reducing it to a minority. The UPA is surviving on the crutches of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
A silver lining is that UPA2’s fifth year has begun with a landslide victory in Karnataka, but this euphoria may be short-lived as the second round of Assembly elections are scheduled for later this year in Congress-ruled Rajasthan and Delhi, and BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The predictions are gloomy for the Congress as it may lose Rajasthan and the BJP may retain Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
On the economy front, there is depressing news with inflation hitting the roof. The foreign exchange reserves are a concern because of higher imports and loss in exports and despite the hype on the FDI in retail, negligible investments have come so far. The manufacturing sector is languishing as is agriculture and the growth rate has slumped to five per cent. Battered by a series of scams and gripped by policy paralysis and inertia, the Government lacks cohesiveness and motivation. There are at least 11 posts lying vacant in Cabinet.
As regards foreign policy, the UPA Government has come across as weak-kneed on several issues. The DMK withdrew support on the issue of Sri lankan Tamils. A diplomatic row escalated into a standoff in March on the Italian marines’ trial, resulting in a major international embarrassment. The new year began with the news of beheading of two Indian soldiers after a series of skirmishes along the line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir. This month, the Government was caught napping on the ladakh region when China intruded into Indian territory. This was followed by the brutal beating of Sarabjit Singh, who was finally flown down to India from Pakistan in a body bag, after two decades.
Closer home, Parliament functioning was stalled following a confrontation with the Opposition, thus affecting legislative business and fate of crucial bills. Both the Opposition and the Government, seem to have abdicated their legislative responsibilities. Worse, is the growing public fury and the Congress and Government’s disconnect with the people and their concerns.
Despite all these, the UPA2 has survived and may complete its full term because no party wants to bring down the Government. But the Congress-led UPA knows it will be an uphill task to return to power for the third time. It is hoping that a fractured Opposition would help it look better. The UPA has divided the Opposition on most issues. The advantage for the Congress is that if it is bad, the BJP is worse with no leadership, and the third alternative is yet to emerge.
A major challenge for the Congress is an image make-over, a thorough reshuffle in the party and the Government and a serious effort to build the party, promote younger leadership and connect with the people. It also needs to keep the UPA flock together and seek new allies. These are stupendous tasks and the party and the Government should walk hand in hand. Mr Singh gets scant help from the party as all the credit is given to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the discredit heaped on the Prime Minister.
In short, when the time comes, Mr Singh will be the fall guy. However, the TINA (there is no alternative) factor and Mr Rahul Gandhi’s reluctance to lead, allows Mr Singh to remain in his seat.