Narendra Modi’s trip to Sri lanka is a potential gamechanger. But success will also depend on the new Government in Colomboc
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sri lanka this week has raised expectations not only in Colombo but also in Tamil Nadu. Since the new Government has taken over in the island nation, bilateral ties are on the upswing.
Sri lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickramesinghe’s categorical statement that Sri lanka will implement the 13th Amendment “within a unitary state” and Foreign Minister Mangala Pinsiri Samaraweera’s assertion that Sri lanka will adopt a “new approach” at the UN Human Rights Council and offer a “domestic mechanism” for looking into human rights abuse, have raised hopes.
Mr Modi’s visit, the first in more than two decades, comes within a month of new Sri lankan President Maithripala Sirisena’s India trip that saw the two countries sign a civil nuclear pact. A solution for the decades-old Tamil issue as well as for the fishermen issue are expected soon. India has undertaken many infrastructure development projects in Sri lanka, including the building of 50,000 houses in Jaffna, which will be handed over to the beneficiaries during Mr Modi’s visit.
On the table is also the offer of a credit line to Sri lanka for more infrastructure and development projects and expanded support for military training with a view to contain the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean Region. The real purpose of the visit lies on the security side and Mr Modi will talk to the Sri lankan Government about India’s concerns in the region.
New Delhi also has to ensure that Colombo implements the 13th Amendment Plus formula which alone can provide devolution to the Tamil-majority North and East Provinces. Hopefully, Mr Modi’s visit to Jaffna will provide new impetus for reconciliation by winning over the confidence of Tamils on both sides of the Palk Straits. It will be a boost for the Tamil community, for Tamil-Sinhala reconciliation and the India-Sri lanka relationship.
How Mr Modi and Mr Sirisena seek to resolve the Tamil issue — in terms of the framework they agree upon and their plan for the repatriation of Tamil refugees in India — will decide the direction and depth of bilateral ties ahead. Generally, New Delhi’s foreign and security establishment and Tamil Nadu politicians determine Indian policy towards Sri lanka.
But after the 2014 general election, Tamil Nadu’s influence in New Delhi has been waning, and Mr Modi is listening more to South Block which is advocating a more strategic and nationalist approach for greater regional cooperation, connectivity and economic integration.
Before embarking on the Sri lanka trip, Mr Modi didn’t have any direct consultation with either AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa or her proxy Chief Minister in Tamil Nadu, Mr O Panneerselvam (although back-channel consultations may have taken place).
The Sirisena Government has already shown its keenness to address the Tamil issue. The President has already removed the former Governor of the Northern Province, who was a military man — as recommended by Northern Province Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran. He has also changed the Chief Secretary of the provincial Government, against whom Mr Wigneswaran had complained.
Additionally, Mr Sirisena has pledged to free hundreds of Tamil detainees and return much of the Tamil land seized by the military in the North and the East. Other Tamil demands, like withdrawal of the military and transfer of land and police powers to the Provincial administration, are, however, yet to be addressed.
The Tamil conflict is not the sole issue between India and Sri lanka. There are other irritants, which Tamil Nadu politicians raise from time to time such as the Katchatheevu island. This issue was settled four decades ago but the DMK, the AIADMK and other Dravidian parties bring it up when Colombo strictly enforces its authority over the island by arresting fishermen from Tamil Nadu fishermen who poach in their waters. In fact, tempers rose last week after Prime Minister Wickramesinghe suggested to a local news channel that encroaching fishermen will be shot dead.
The other issue is the return of some 1,00,000 Sri lankan Tamil refugees currently living in India. New Delhi is already talking to Colombo on this matter. Sri lanka watchers believe that the Modi visit could improve ties but much depends on the outcome of the ensuing parliamentary election in Sri lanka.