No matter how much the BJP focuses on development agenda, there were spin masters — aided and abetted by media reports of prospective Metro fare hike, demolition of jhuggis, price rise, etc — who successfully convinced Delhi voters about the saffron party’s focus on Hindutva, anti-poor and anti-middle class policies
It has been more than a month since the BJP lost the election in Delhi. The dust has settled down, the storm is over, and perhaps now it is an appropriate time for a stock-taking exercise. let us begin by saying that it was an unprecedented win for the AAP and equally humiliating and unexpected defeat for the BJP, which swept lok Sabha polls in Delhi just eight months ago. Sometimes we attribute anti-incumbency factor to a loss in election, but being in Central power for eight months and being out of power in the national Capital for 16 years do not at all constitute a plausible case of anti-incumbency.
Political analysts have started giving their views, most of which suited their own respective positions rather than illuminating the actual reasons behind BJP’s defeat. The left-liberal commentators, who abhor Hindutva as a fundamentalist ideology, gleefully hold the policies of Ghar Wapsi and stray attacks on churches responsible for the defeat of the BJP. Holding that the BJP was trying to polarise Delhi on the basis of religion to win the election, they go on to congratulate the electorate now for its secular resolve. Given that some segments of Sangh Parivar have actually criticised the BJP for deviating from Hindu agenda in recent times, we may not attach much importance to this charge of fundamentalism against the BJP. Indeed, the BJP these days speaks of development, not Hindutva. To what extent that is electorally beneficial for this party is a separate question.
Some academicians and journalists consider BJP’s arrogance as the major reason behind its failure in Delhi, while the same party has performed unexpectedly well just a few days back in J&K and Jharkhand.
Some have argued that the projection of Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate, ignoring many time-tested leaders, backfired. But had this been the major reason for defeat, then AAP would also not have won, as a lot of founder members of the AAP, like Shanti Bhushan, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav and many others, seem to have been sidelined in this election. This has now come out in the open after the removal of Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav from the PAC, highest decision-making body of the AAP.
Now, the way some commentators are expressing their views to explain BJP’s defeat, it seems that they have been piling up these arguments for a long time and have been waiting precisely for this moment to burst open. Unfortunately no one is speaking on the role of the media and Government officials.
While analysing the reasons behind the BJP’s defeat, we should not forget the forces that played an important role in the emergence of the AAP as a political outfit. The issues of corruption, high electricity bills, scarcity of water, rise in fare of Metro and DTC, demolition of jhuggis and perpetually unauthorised colonies affect the poor and the middle class. The BJP failed to convince the voters of Delhi that it could take care of the basic problems of Delhiites better than the AAP. If we analyse the news published in print media and telecasted in the electronic media during Delhi election, we will find that they played an influential role in making a perception among the voters that the BJP was against the poor and the middle class. It is an altogether different question whether the BJP is really like that or not, perception steals the show.
let us study some of the news items that came into the newspapers since last June, especially when the elections were almost certain in Delhi. These news items had the potential to damage all the prospects of the BJP and we shall suggest that they played a role in BJP’s humiliating defeat in the election.
News related to a hike in bus fare
On June 15, 2014, a news report came in most of the newspapers regarding the intention of the Government to hike the DTC bus fares in Delhi.
“A senior DTC official said the proposal to hike fares by more than 50% has been approved by the Finance Department but it is yet to receive the lG’s nod.”(TOI, June 15, 2014)
Though the fare was not raised but it did send a message across Delhi that the new Government will certainly raise the fare if voted into power.
News related to expected hike in sugar price
On June 24, 2014, a news report was published in TOI and other newspapers regarding the hike in sugar prices by Rs2-Rs3 per kg due to hike in import duties.
“NEW DElHI: Ahead of Assembly elections in Maharashtra, the Government on Monday announced a series of measures for the sugar industry, including an increase in the import duty from 15% to 40%, to improve its financial health but may end up pushing up the price of the sweetened by Rs2-Rs3 a kg for consumers.” (TOI, June 24, 2014)
However, the prices were not finally increased. Nonetheless it gave an impression in the mind of people that the BJP was not increasing the price of sugar for the time being, but would do the same once the elections got over.
News related to the hike in power tariff
News related to power tariff hike was published in TOI and other newspapers on November 14, 2014, in which Delhi Electric Regulatory Commission (DERC) announced a hike in consumer power tariff through power purchase adjustment charges. According to the news,
the consumers will have to pay up to 7 per cent higher electricity bills.
“NEW DElHI: Over two weeks after its initial announcement, Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) on Thursday announced the new power purchase adjustment charges (PPAC) for Delhi. From November 15, East Delhi residents will be shelling out 7% more for electricity, South Delhi will see a 4.5% increase and North Delhi will have 2.5% additional charges added to their bills towards fuel and variation costs. The PPAC will be applicable till February 15, 2015.” (TOI, November 14, 2014)
On November 15, 2014 another news report came in TOI and other national dailies that DERC had withdrawn its order of tariff hike. But by the time this clarification came, it was too late. It had given birth to a speculation about the intentions of the BJP to introduce tariff hike after election.
News related to the demolition of jhuggis
News related to the demolition of jhuggis in Delhi went viral. On November 26, 2015 some jhuggis were demolished by the Forest Department officials at Rangpur Pahari, Delhi. The news was published in the front page of all the major newspapers and obviously the blame went to the BJP as it was ruling at the Centre and Delhi was under President’s Rule.
“NEW DElHI: “One day I’ll grow up into a powerful bulldozer and bring down all houses left behind,” says a traumatised six-year-old Ayaan. His face smeared with dust, the boy uses his tender hands to hold a hammer to assist his mother clear away the bricks that once made his home. The settlement, Israeli Camp in Rangpuri Pahari area of South Delhi near Vasant Kunj, was reduced to rubble in a demolition done by the State’s Forest Department on Tuesday. (TOI, November 27, 2014)”
The BJP had not even recovered from this blow when another news came into all the newspapers and TV channels. On December 16, 2014, another jhuggi was demolished at Wazirpur by the Delhi Police claiming that it was built on the land owned by the Railways. The demolition was highly criticised as painful and inhuman given the severe cold wave in the city.
“NEW Delhi. More than 30 households were demolished in the slums of Wazirpur by the Delhi Police. Due to this, hundreds of residents who largely belong to poor working class families, including a large number of children, have been left homeless, having to face the bitter winter cold without any shelter. The Northern Railways has neither provided the mandatory notice nor have the railway officials provided any blankets to the residents.” (TOI, December 16, 2014)
Surprisingly the Modi Government did not have any direct link with these demolitions. No Government whether it is the BJP, the Congress, the AAP, or any other party would want the demolitions of jhuggis just before the election. But unfortunately the blame went to the BJP as the party is in power.
News related to a hike in Metro fare
On February 2, 2015, another major news report was published in TOI and other newspapers and aired on TV channels, just four days ahead of Delhi election. According to the news, DMRC had sent a proposal to hike Metro fares and the Urban Development Ministry proposal to the appointment committee of the Cabinet to set up a fare fixation panel which would submit its report within three months of getting approved.
“Feb 2, 2015 NEW DElHI: Months after the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) sent a proposal to hike fares, the Government has taken the first step towards a fare revision. Sources on Sunday confirmed that the Union Urban Development Ministry has sent a proposal to the appointments committee of the Cabinet to set up a fare-fixation panel, which will submit its report within three months of getting approved.” (TOI, February 2, 2015)
Though Metro fares have not been raised till date, but the circulation of the news of Metro fare hike had created huge resentment as Metro is the lifeline of Delhi. Such resentment is generally reflected in terms of vote.
We hereby do not disapprove or challenge the veracity of all these news reports. In fact, most of them pertain to routine administrative exercises: Whenever an organisation holds a meeting, be it DTC, DMRC, DERC, or MCA, it may discuss the issue of raising users’ cost of the services provided by it. But it doesn’t always mean that the hike is going to be implemented. We are not blaming the media for the defeat of the BJP, but the pertinent issue to be analysed here is how these news reports were represented by the media.
This is important to note that all the news reports related to hike in price, fares and electricity tariff told us what were just discussed in the meeting of the concerned departments and not what were implemented. But when strategically leaked to the media, such reports can create crucial perceptions. Interestingly, all these news reports were widely publicised and constituted front page news. However the news related to the demolition ofjhuggis was actually realised and even the BJP was shocked to see the news. Curiously, even before the news of demolition reached public in the morning most of the leaders of the Congress party, including Rahul Gandhi, had reached the demolition site.
All these news and incidents which occurred in the city raise questions: Was BJP so naïve that it could not estimate the effect of hike in the fare of DTC and Metro, hike in the electricity tariff, increase in the prices of sugar, and demolition of jhuggis especially when these all were the main issues of its rival partiesIJ
It doesn’t seem that Amit Shah and his team were not intelligent enough to realise the aftermath of price hike. So the question that arises here is that why they let it happen. Would the BJP now cry foul that it was a conspiracy of its rivalsIJ
The Central Government tried to undo the damage done by the demolition of jhuggis by passing a Bill in Parliament giving reprieve to all the unauthorised colonies. The Bill was to give them protection up to 2017 from any kind of demolition. But this Bill could not bring any change in the mindset of the voters as they perceived the intention of the Government regarding jhuggi and unauthorised colony to be hostile.
It might be the case that the BJP fell prey to the trap set by its rivals, especially the Congress (the AAP has become an alias for all the forces which earlier sided with the Congress to keep the BJP at bay). Being a long-serving party in power it has a large number of loyal bureaucrats who not only help to get the news leaked but also they work on the behest of their masters in the Congress party. The demolition of jhuggis might actually be one of the examples of these Congress loyalist bureaucrats’ act without informing the Minister of department concerned.
We cannot forget that Congress has mastered the political acumen and expertise of manoeuvre, and its experience forms a deadly counterpoint to BJP’s inexperience.
The BJP will have miles to go before it can master the art of winning elections. In this election at least, they have seriously failed to convince the people of Delhi that they are the party that can curb inflation, despite the lowest inflation rate in the last quarter, that they can reduce the fuel prices, despite a record slash in the fuel prices by any Central Government ever.
Now the people of Delhi have to see how their aspirations will be fulfilled by the new Government, especially lowering of power tariff, in the absence of any substantial production of electricity. If the AAP succeeds in fulfilling its promises, it will have a long-lasting impact on Indian politics. But the way founder members of the party (like Yogendra Yadav) are being treated, it generated a speculation that the AAP may now end up like the Congress and other regional parties as one-man show.
Here we need to remember that the kind of popularity gained by Arvind Kejriwal is different from that of Yogendra Yadav. Arvind Kejriwal appeals more to the lower middle classes and the poor who believe that he can curb the problem of inflation and end corruption. But Yogendra Yadav is highly popular among students and educated classes due to his clarity on the ideas of alternative politics. His removal from the highest executive body is a serious issue for the AAP and this could be the first jolt to the new regime of Delhi.
The BJP now will have to wait and watch. While it must learn from its defeat in order to come up with better strategies in future, it can also hope for further dissidence among the rank and file of AAP. After all, running a party in Government is a completely different ballgame from running agitations.
(Both Anish Gupta and Tamal Das Gupta are founder members of Shoptodina Foundation, and teach Economics and English respectively at Delhi University)