The US Supreme Court’s historic ruling on same-sex couples will have a political impact for both Republican and Democratic candidates in the 2016 election
With its historic judgement, allowing same-sex couples to marry, the US Supreme Court has settled one of the major civil rights issues of the country — but only from a legal perspective. Politically, the issue remains volatile as the polarised reactions of the 2016 presidential candidates (and assumed candidates) show. Democratic candidates have given univocal support to the judgement while the Republican response has varied, with some expressing stronger objections than others.
leading the Democratic candidates, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that her personal views on same-sex marriage has evolved over the years. Ms Clinton tweeted in support of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Americans and advocated equal rights. In 2008, she had only supported civil unions, not marriages, for same-sex couples. Her closest competition in the primaries, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has long been a vocal proponent of gay rights, also hailed the Supreme Court’s decision as ‘equal justice under law’.
On the other hand, even though all the Grand Old Party candidates showed disappointment over the ruling, some like Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker, Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee and Governor of louisiana Bobby Jindal issued strongly worded statements, urging the conservatives to fight against the legislation. However, other GOP leaders such as former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush and Florida Senator Marco Rubio issued more moderate statements.
Republican candidates, who were quick to register their disapproval, find themselves in a tough situation of assuaging their conservative voter-base while acknowledging that the next President will be ineffectual in reversing the judgement. This may explain why some of the prominent GOP candidates like Mr Bush and Mr Rubio chose relatively muted reactions. Both said that the court had overstepped its boundaries but upheld the law of the land and spoke against discrimination.
Moreover, the ruling follows an unparalleled shift in US public opinion. According to Pew Research Centre, in 2001, Americans opposed same-sex marriage by a 57 to 35 per cent margin. But the data published days before the judgement in June this year showed that support for same-sex marriage has increased dramatically with 57 per cent supporting same-sex marriage.
Given the changing public and political atmosphere in favour of same-sex marriage, Republican candidates are likely to find themselves grappling with their approach to the Supreme Court ruling as well as to the issue equal rights at large. The challenge in the primaries and more explicitly in the 2016 presidential face-off will be to balance the expectations of their core conservative base without estranging the general voters, many of them young millennials, who support equal rights.
However, the Supreme Court ruling could also help the GOP. The judgement has left older, conservative audiences feeling defensive. It could serve as a consolidating issue that candidates can rally around. The perception of threat to religious liberty and family values may even help bolster fund-raising campaigns for the GOP.
The ruling was also accompanied by the judgement upholding Obamacare. This has resulted in strengthening calls amongst the Republicans against judicial activism. It is likely that as a result of these judgements, the Supreme Court itself will be in focus during the 2016 election. After the Obamacare ruling, Senator Ted Cruz angrily noted that, “a handful of unelected judges had re-written the text to impose failed laws on Americans”. Republican GOP hopeful Carly Fiorina said that the same-sex marriage ruling is, “only the latest example of an activist Court”.
The Republican discontentment with the bench could be a recurring theme. Growing frustration with the court may encourage conservatives to support presidential candidates who commit to place strong conservatives on the bench. According to a recent Pew Research Centre survey, just 33 per cent of Republicans have a favourable opinion of the court in contrast, to 62 per cent of Democrats.
Since Ms Clinton's began her election campaign, it has been clear that gender issues will play a significant role in the 2016 Presidential run. The same-sex marriage ruling has only exacerbated that possibility, with lGBT rights thrust into the debate. The ruling has not only divided candidates along partisan lines, but also generated different reactions within parties.
(The writer is a researcher at the Observer Researcher Foundation, New Delhi)