US sanctions threaten India’s Russian oil supply, says Kpler

A US Senate vote to advance tougher sanctions on Russia raises the risk of disruption to Russian crude supplies but is unlikely to immediately alter oil flows to India and China, according to Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia.

The US Senate on Friday passed a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that would give President Donald Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on imports from countries that are among the world’s largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 targets the five biggest purchasers of Russian energy and is aimed at cutting Moscow’s revenues from oil and gas sales.

The measure still needs to clear the US House of Representatives and faces further legislative and administrative steps before it could take effect.

According to Ritolia, the measures still face further legislative and administrative hurdles, while their impact will depend largely on how aggressively the US administration implements them, including whether it grants exemptions or waivers.

“Recent experience suggests that when physical supply security becomes a concern, policymakers retain an incentive to avoid measures that could unnecessarily disrupt crude availability,” he said.

The timing of any curbs is critical as global crude markets remain relatively tight and uncertainty over Middle Eastern supplies has increased the importance of alternative sources, Ritolia said. A significant restriction on Russian oil could therefore tighten global balances rather than simply redirect existing trade flows.

India’s dependence on Russian crude has surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western sanctions and an exodus of European buyers left Moscow offering deep discounts to Asian refiners. Russia supplied less than 100,000 barrels per day to India in 2021, or about 2.5 per cent of its crude imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The volume rose to about 740,000 bpd in 2022 and nearly 1.8 million bpd in 2023, making Russia India’s largest crude supplier with about 39 per cent of imports that year.

The dependence has since grown further. Kpler data show Indian refiners imported a record 2.8 million bpd of Russian crude in July 2026, accounting for about 55.5 per cent of total crude imports of just over 5 million bpd. That compares with roughly 1.8 million bpd on average in 2024, according to Kpler-based data.

Ritolia said Russian crude has become an important supply hedge for Indian refiners, reducing their exposure to disruptions along traditional Middle Eastern supply routes.

This reliance became particularly evident during the recent period of heightened Middle East supply risks, when the US provided temporary sanctions flexibility that allowed Russian barrels to continue flowing to India, he said.

Replacing Russian crude at current volumes would be difficult, if not impossible, in the short term, Ritolia said. A rapid curtailment of Russian supplies to India or other Asian buyers could therefore tighten global oil balances and put upward pressure on crude prices.

For India, the impact would extend beyond refinery procurement costs, potentially increasing the country’s overall crude import bill, widening pressure on the current account and raising concerns over energy security.

The key question, Ritolia said, is not simply whether Russian barrels can be redirected to other buyers, but whether sufficient alternative supplies are available to replace them without further tightening the global market.