Trump frames unregulated AI as way to keep ahead of China - but in fact, it harms US national security

Georgia (US), Sep 27 (The Conversation) Amid the chorus of voices calling for a slowdown in AI advancement and more government regulation and oversight of the technology, one prominent contrarian voice stands out: that of Donald J. Trump.

The US president has repeatedly argued that the introduction of robust regulations to slow down progress on AI threatens US national interests by enabling China to seize the advantage.

“Whoever wins AI, WINS!” Trump posted on social media on Sept. 21, 2026, and singled out China as the primary threat to America “winning” AI. He followed up with a speech at the United Nations in which he outlined his administration’s total rejection of “any attempt to construct a globalist scheme to control” artificial intelligence.

Certainly, China seizing the global lead on AI would represent an alarming setback to American strategic and economic interests. As a scholar whose research examines the intersection of international relations and technology, I contend that China’s swift advances in AI constitute one of the leading reasons why regulation of the US AI industry is necessary. Paradoxical as it may sound, slowing down AI advancement in the US would also decelerate China’s advances.

Even more important, recent revelations about AI “going rogue,” coupled with the astonishing growth in power and capability of new AI models, strongly suggest that an unregulated sector represents a greater security threat for the United States than the threat of a surge in capabilities by China.

Unregulated AI and security threats

Leading industry and political figures around the globe have sounded the alarm about the security threats presented by unchecked AI growth. About 8 in 10 Americans share these concerns, according to recent polling, as a large majority of Democrats, Independents and Republicans support increasing AI regulations.

These threats include heightened US vulnerability to attacks from foreign nations and terrorist groups who can exploit AI advances to build more lethal weapons systems – both conventional arms and weapons of mass destruction. Advances in the sector also increase the chance of nefarious actors launching devastating cyberattacks, with AI becoming increasingly adept at identifying and exploiting cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

These concerns are known within the industry. On Sept. 10, 2026, Anthropic issued a report revealing a series of incidents in which foreign actors – some based in China, Russia and Iran – used Claude in cyber, influence, surveillance and fraud operations and to support weapons development.

Google similarly detected recent attempts by actors linked to China, Russia, North Korea and Iran to use its Gemini AI model to carry out hacking, disinformation, espionage and criminal operations.

Anthropic’s report revealed “five case studies of actors using our models in ways that could support biological weapons development.”

Unregulated AI poses not just a severe security challenge but a potentially existential threat. An AI-induced nuclear missile launch, the release of super pathogens that cause pandemics and attacks on critical life-sustaining infrastructure have all been raised as potential concerns.

Aside from these more extreme scenarios, unchecked AI poses a threat to the digital infrastructure that undergirds the US and world economies.

Slowing the speedboat

Trump may dismiss these worst-case scenarios as a “hoax,” but the national security threats are real. Trump’s argument is that the best way to protect the US is to make sure American companies stay ahead of China on AI. Indeed, China’s AI models are not far behind, and China possesses an advantage in a factor vital to AI systems – electric power generation, which AI consumes in large and growing quantities.

Still, the consensus of tech experts is that the US remains the world’s top AI power due to American firms’ lead in advanced models and computer chips and the scale of America’s computing power – through chips, processors and servers – as well as the level of capital investment.

However, the rapid advance of AI capabilities by American firms has helped China to accelerate its own AI industry.

China uses a process known as distillation to exploit cutting-edge US AI models to train China’s own models. The process enables China to develop models nearly as powerful but much more efficient, using far fewer resources.

Beijing’s reliance on distillation, according to Matt Sheehan, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is a result of its own limited computing power, estimated at just one-tenth that of the United States.

As a result of its distillation strategy, the pace of China’s AI progress is tightly linked to US progress. Using Sheenan’s analogy, the relationship is much like a speedboat pulling a water skier: If the US eases on the AI throttle, China will be forced to slow down as well.

Therefore, racing ahead unchecked at breakneck speed – the approach advocated by Trump – would not guarantee that the US widens its AI lead. Chinese firms will continue to exploit US AI progress to strengthen their offensive capabilities.

Global governance and regulation

As such, rather than jeopardizing American national security, US regulations that slow AI advancement could strengthen security by slowing down the Chinese government’s own access to cutting-edge AI.

The “China threat” argument against greater US regulation on AI is also predicated on the notion that Beijing does not possess its own concerns about the dangers of unchecked growth in AI power, and this isn’t the case.

Chinese leaders harbour serious security and domestic affairs–related concerns about uncontrolled AI growth. Indeed, if there is one AI area where China leads the US, it is in regulations on AI. Consider, for example, that as far back as 2021, Beijing imposed its first major set of AI regulations.

And while top figures in the Trump administration were urging less regulation, Chinese officials were calling for the opposite. In recent months, Chinese officials have repeatedly called for greater domestic and international oversight of AI.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has been enthusiastic about AI advances, but his speech at the 2026 World AI Conference in Shanghai urgently expressed the need for strong AI regulations and oversight.

Speaking at the UN Security Council’s meeting on AI and International Security on September 23, 2026, Fu Cong, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, made the case for “a consensus-based global governance framework” for AI to “build institutional guardrails that preserve international peace and security.”

Beijing appears to be framing unregulated AI advancement not as a race but as a common threat. Should Trump be convinced by such a narrative, then there may be grounds for optimism that Washington and Beijing in the near future will be able to reach agreement on AI governance and regulation – a development that would better ensure a safer future for both nations.

(The Conversation)