India face Argentina as semifinal hopes hang by a thread

India will have to produce a near-perfect performance to beat Argentina by a big margin in their last second-round match here on Monday as their Hockey World Cup semifinal chances hinge on several ifs and buts.

The 1-3 defeat against the Netherlands had almost sent India out of the semifinal race, but Argentina’s win over England on Saturday kept them mathematically alive. A lot will depend on the result of the Netherlands-England clash, also to be played on Monday but after the India versus Argentina match. The Netherlands will have to beat England for India to have any chance of reaching the semifinals. If England draw or beat Netherlands, even a win against Argentina will see India bow of the tournament.

Under the new World Cup format, the top two teams from Pool E will advance to the semifinals. The Netherlands have already secured their place in the last four with six points.

England and Argentina are level on three points after two matches, while India are yet to open their account in the second phase but technically they are still in contention, though the chances are slim. The simplest route for India is to beat Argentina by at least the margin of two goals and hope England lose to the Netherlands by at least a margin of three goals. A victory over Argentina would take India to three points, and the margin of victory could prove crucial if the teams finish level on points.

India need at least a four-goal swing between themselves and England for them to qualify for the semifinals. If India win 3-1 against Argentina, that would mean they have six goals scored and eight goals conceded. In that case, if England lose 0-2, then they would have five goals scored and seven conceded. India would go through on the basis of more goals scored.

The task, though, is easier said than done. Argentina have already shown their attacking strength in this tournament and will take confidence from their 3-1 win over England on Saturday. They also defeated India 8-0 and 4-2 in the FIH Pro League earlier this year in Rourkela. Argentina’s experienced campaigner Matias Rey, a member of the 2016 Rio Olympic gold-medal-winning side, will once again be a key figure for them. The six-time World Cup participant has 329 international appearances to his name.

For India, the biggest concern will be converting possession and chances into goals. They created opportunities against the Netherlands but struggled to find the finishing touches, while the Dutch struck three times after half-time to turn the game around.