Shiv Sena @60: Can it survive another split

As the Shiv Sena completed six decades of its turbulent political journey on June 19, the party found itself confronting yet another split — its fifth major split in six decades. The crisis raises fundamental questions about leadership, succession, ideology and the future of both the Thackeray family and Maharashtra’s regional politics.

Last week, on June 19, the Shiv Sena marked its 60th anniversary. Since its inception, in the past 6o years, the party has experienced several splits, with the latest occurring on June 26.  Shiv Sena’s 60th anniversary is contested by two factions-Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) and Eknath Shinde’s Sena-each claiming the party’s original ideological legacy.

On June 26, a significant political rift emerged within the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) when six of its nine Lok Sabha MPs defected to join Eknath Shinde’s ruling Shiv Sena faction. This sudden defection severely undermined Uddhav Thackeray’s group, reducing its representation in the Lok Sabha to just three members and bolstering the Shinde faction’s parliamentary strength.

The ongoing political contest across Parliament, courts, and streets underscores the urgency for strategic responses. In its 60 years, the Shiv Sena has split five times, highlighting its vulnerability to internal divisions and the need for effective management of such conflicts.

Just before the party founder, Bal Thackeray, named his son, Uddhav, as the Sena executive president in 2003, senior party leaders had begun pressing for a key organisational role for him. Later, Uddhav’s son Aaditya Thackeray’s elevation in the Sena followed a similar trajectory, with party leaders projecting him as its “gen-next” face before he was appointed the Yuva Sena chief.

On November 28, 2019, Uddhav Thackeray, leader of the Shiv Sena and head of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), was sworn in as Maharashtra’s Chief Minister, marking a key leadership milestone amid ongoing political shifts. The MVA is an alliance between the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Indian National Congress.

On June 21, 2022, Eknath Shinde, the leader of the Shiv Sena in the Legislative Assembly, went missing with several other MLAs. This ‘rebel’ group initially moved to Surat and then to Guwahati, claiming that the MVA alliance contradicted the Shiv Sena’s ideology and expressing a lack of confidence in CM Thackeray.

After the 2022 split, 40 of the 56 Shiv Sena MLAs sided with Shinde, while 16 remained with Thackeray. In the Lok Sabha, 13 of 18 MPs joined the Shinde camp, leaving just five with Uddhav. Both factions claim to be the rightful heirs to Bal Thackeray’s political legacy, with Uddhav emphasising his bloodline and Shinde arguing that he upholds the party’s ideological foundation.

The manner in which the Shiv Sena split is reminiscent of past political events, such as the fragmentation of the NCP and the ongoing issues facing the TMC. This trend is concerning. Sharad Pawar has even remarked that several regional parties may merge with Congress in the coming years.

The latest split in Shiv Sena UBT raises important questions about the future of the Thackeray clan. It could unfold in several ways: Dissent among the rebel leaders has been growing due to their dissatisfaction with Thackeray’s leadership. They believe he has not engaged with them enough, particularly by failing to visit their constituencies despite their requests for support.

Senior Sena leaders credit Shinde’s son, Shrikant, with playing a “central role” in bringing six Uddhav Sena MPs into the party fold and increasing its bargaining power vis-à-vis the BJP.

To navigate the challenges following the split and ensure the survival and resurgence of the Uddhav faction, several strategic actions could be considered:

• There is an urgent need to resolve grievances and restore unity and confidence among supporters.
• If the faction fails to acknowledge divides and shifting public sentiments, they risk losing influence in the future.
• Supporting credible and relatable leaders can inspire confidence, attract new supporters, and energise the existing base
• Focusing on key issues such as employment, education, and infrastructure can empower supporters and garner their backing.
• Outreach initiatives and campaigns addressing local issues can foster trust and a sense of shared purpose.
• Leveraging cultural heritage and engaging in social activities can reinforce regional identity and goodwill among the public.
• Being responsive to changing political sentiments and the expectations of younger generations is crucial for maintaining relevance.

Fostering internal cohesion is crucial during this period. Swiftly resolving internal conflicts and creating an inclusive environment can inspire hope and a shared sense of responsibility among supporters, strengthening party unity and resilience.

By implementing these strategies, the Uddhav faction can survive and potentially regain influence in Maharashtra’s politics. However, if they fail to address internal divisions and adapt to changing public opinions, they may struggle to remain relevant.

Neither faction is electorally self-sufficient: Shinde relies on the BJP’s machinery, while Uddhav depends on the MVA’s combined vote share.

Therefore, the upcoming IHG assembly election will be a true test of which faction of the Shiv Sena survives.

Ultimately, the outcome depends largely on their strategic decisions and their ability to respond to the evolving political landscape in Maharashtra. The choices they make will be pivotal for the future of the Thackeray family and the party.

The manner in which the Shiv Sena split is reminiscent of past political events, such as the fragmentation of the NCP and the ongoing issues facing the TMC. This trend is concerning. Sharad Pawar has even remarked that several regional parties may merge with Congress in the coming years

The writer is a popular columnist; Views presented are personal.