As Niger mutiny falters, Russia's influence over Sahel juntas grows
Russia's role as a security partner for military juntas in Africa's Sahel region is coming into sharper focus after its forces helped Niger's ruling junta put down a mutiny by renegade soldiers over the weekend.
The mutiny, the most serious internal threat faced by Niger's junta since it seized power in a 2023 coup, triggered a 24-hour standoff in the capital, Niamey.
Mostly young soldiers reportedly took some of their colleagues hostage at Base 101, a strategic military facility at Niamey international airport, and opened fire near the presidential palace, located about 12 kilometres away.
The mutineers were eventually subdued by presidential guard forces with assistance from Russia's Africa Corps paramilitary group, according to several analysts and diplomats.
Russia's ambassador to Niger, Viktor Voropayev, told Russian media that Niger had requested assistance from the Russian force and that the mutineers were "neutralised, particularly thanks to the intervention" of Africa Corps.
Nigerien authorities have not yet publicly commented on the incident.
Analysts said the outcome of the confrontation at Base 101 was uncertain because of the number and determination of the mutineers, until Russian forces intervened.
The episode marks the second time this year that Africa Corps has helped defend a junta-led government against a serious security threat in the Sahel. In May, Russian forces assisted Mali in putting down major attacks by jihadis and rebels.
In a region that has become the global epicentre of terrorism, Russia's priorities appear to extend beyond fighting militant groups.
"Fighting jihadis comes as a second priority (for the Africa Corps), but the first priority is to sustain regimes and they are succeeding in this," said Wassim Nasr, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Centre, a New York-based think tank.
Russia uses forces to influence power in Africa
Across the Sahel, a vast semi-arid belt south of the Sahara Desert, military governments that seized power after citing failures by civilian administrations to address insecurity have moved away from longtime Western security partners and closer to Russia.
The juntas initially welcomed the Moscow-backed Wagner private mercenary group before it was replaced by Africa Corps, which operates under the direct command of Russia's Defence Ministry.
The number of Russian personnel deployed in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso is not publicly known. Estimates put the combined strength of Russian forces in the three junta-led countries at between 1,700 and 2,000.
In the Central African Republic, Wagner is estimated to have about 1,000 personnel.
Russia's growing security partnerships are part of a broader contest with the United States, Europe and China for influence across Africa. The Russian presence has helped Moscow expand its role beyond security into economic and political affairs.
"The security arrangements that are currently in place, whether it's counterinsurgency support, military equipment, and other economic deals along the side, are heavily dependent on the leadership of these three countries," said Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst specialising in the Sahel at Control Risks.
Russia has limited resources to deploy across the region, Ochieng said, but has demonstrated an ability to combine diplomacy, counterinsurgency assistance and geopolitics to present itself as an "all-weather friend".
The partnership with Wagner and later Africa Corps has also proved to be "good business for Russia (at) a low cost", Nasr said.
Sahel security situation continues to worsen
While Russian military partnerships have helped protect junta leaders from certain threats, the broader security situation across the Sahel has continued to deteriorate.
Armed groups are increasingly targeting cities and urban centres as they compete for territory and influence.
Niamey airport itself has come under attack twice this year. In June, the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM militant group attacked the facility, killing 11 soldiers and two civilians. In January, Islamic State's Sahel Province targeted expensive drones at the airport.
The threat of further internal challenges, such as the weekend mutiny, could lead the juntas to devote even greater attention to protecting their own governments, potentially at the expense of wider security efforts.
The juntas have promoted their break with former Western allies as part of a drive for greater sovereignty and independence. But the events in Niger have highlighted the contradiction between that rhetoric and growing dependence on Moscow.
The Senegal-based Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies said the intervention "highlights the vulnerabilities of a regime whose stability increasingly relies on a Russian partnership".
"The intervention of an external partner to help contain an internal crisis raises a central question: how far can the pursuit of strategic autonomy go when it is accompanied by a growing dependence on Moscow?" the institute said.
Russia's ability to help keep military governments in power could also increase Moscow's appeal to other African governments, said Nathaniel Powell, a West Africa analyst at Oxford Analytica.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said Moscow was ready to support African countries in their fight against terrorism.
However, analysts say governments may remain cautious about partnerships involving Africa Corps because of allegations and concerns over human rights abuses associated with Russian forces.
Still, Powell noted that a foreign force deployed to prevent coups can offer advantages to a government because its personnel have no local interests competing for their loyalty.
Such forces may also be viewed as militarily superior to national formations, potentially deterring soldiers who might otherwise consider attempting to seize power.
