New US missile may have caused widespread civilian deaths in Iran

A new US ballistic missile designed for long-range, precision strikes appears to have caused deaths and damage across a wide area when it was used in combat for the first time during the Iran war, according to an investigation by conflict monitor Airwars and interviews with weapons experts and former defence officials.

The findings have raised questions over the use of Lockheed Martin's Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) near populated areas because of the weapon's ability to scatter tens of thousands of metal pellets over a broad radius.

Airwars' review of three missile strikes on the southern Iranian city of Lamerd on February 28 found that civilians were killed as far as 50 metres (164 feet) from the points where the weapons detonated, while damage extended more than three times that distance.

The missiles exploded above a sports complex and two residential neighbourhoods, according to Airwars. Iranian officials said at least 21 civilians, including seven children, were killed.

Airwars said it was the first organisation to map the damage from the Lamerd strikes and estimate the weapon's lethal range.

Photos, videos and satellite imagery examined by Airwars and verified by The Associated Press showed buildings, roads and vehicles covered with numerous impact marks. Weapons experts said the pattern was consistent with the effects expected from a PrSM.

The US military has acknowledged using PrSMs in Iran but has denied carrying out strikes on Lamerd.

The intended target in the city remains unclear. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps compound is located nearby, but satellite imagery showed no damage to the facility.

Six weapons experts, including two former military officials, told AP they believed PrSMs were used in Lamerd. They said the evidence made the use of Israeli or Iranian weapons unlikely and cautioned against employing the missile against targets close to civilian populations.

"You would be hard-pressed to find a reason to use the PrSM in a densely populated area," said Michael Meier, a former US Army adviser on the laws of war.

How Airwars analysed the Lamerd strikes

Airwars, a London-based nonprofit founded more than a decade ago to investigate civilian deaths linked to US airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, has also monitored conflicts including those in Gaza and Ukraine.

Its investigations rely on publicly available evidence, including photographs, videos, satellite imagery, social media posts and news reports. The organisation also uses geolocation software and other tools to verify locations and assess damage.

For the Lamerd investigation, Airwars mapped the approximate locations where the missiles detonated, the reported locations of civilian deaths and areas where damage consistent with blast patterns was visible. It then measured the distances between the points to estimate the weapons' effective blast radius.

AP independently checked Airwars' estimate by measuring the distance between reported locations of civilian deaths and the points where security camera and other videos showed the missiles detonating in midair.

AP also reviewed satellite imagery, photographs and videos documenting damage at the strike sites.

Lockheed Martin did not respond to a request for comment and has not publicly specified the width of the missile's impact area. The company has, however, released an animated video showing a simulated PrSM blast.

US confirms PrSM use in Iran but denies Lamerd strike

A day after the Lamerd attack, US Central Command posted on X an image that weapons experts identified as a PrSM being launched during the Iran operation.

Three days later, the command described the use of PrSMs in Iran as a "historic first", without specifying where the missiles were fired.

After reports about the Lamerd strikes received wider attention, a Central Command spokesperson said US forces had not launched PrSMs or any other weapons into Lamerd on February 28 and maintained that American forces do not target civilians.

The spokesperson suggested that footage of one strike indicated the weapon involved was an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.

Weapons experts disputed that assessment, saying the missile visible in security camera footage from Lamerd did not resemble the Iranian weapon, which has a rounded engine.

The Israeli military told AP that it had not carried out strikes as far south in Iran as Lamerd on the first day of the war. Experts also said Israel is not known to possess missiles that detonate in midair in the manner seen in Lamerd.

When asked about the Airwars and AP findings, Central Command repeated its denial of responsibility, saying the position was based on an earlier review of the incident.

Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress in May that the US military was investigating only one case of American fire killing civilians — a strike on an Iranian school in Minab.

PrSM designed to replace older Army missile

The PrSM is intended to replace the US Army's Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has been in service for decades.

The ATACMS has a range of about 300 kilometres, while Lockheed Martin says the PrSM can strike targets more than 499 kilometres away.

The two weapons also differ in how they produce their effects.

ATACMS missiles can break apart over a target and release steel fragments or small bomblets. A PrSM warhead, by contrast, is designed to explode in midair and propel tens of thousands of dense tungsten pellets in all directions, according to Airwars and weapons specialists.

Because tungsten is highly dense and has a high melting point, the pellets retain their shape after detonation and can penetrate soft armour, according to defence publications.

That design gives the missile a highly lethal effect over a broad area.

Lamerd damage extended well beyond blast points

Airwars identified footage showing damage to a school located about 170 metres from the point where one missile detonated above the Shahid Naimi Sports Hall.

Iranian state media reported that seven civilians, mostly children, were killed in that strike. Airwars said it used open-source evidence to verify the reported deaths.

Those killed included three teenage girls who were playing volleyball and a woman who was smoking a hookah outside her home.

Another missile exploded above the Tal-e Khandagh neighbourhood, killing 2-year-old Avina Barzegar while she was playing in her yard.

Airwars estimated that a pellet that struck Barzegar travelled about 50 metres from the missile's detonation point. It determined the location of her home by geolocating a video showing its front gate and then measuring the distance to the blast site.

Neither Airwars nor AP found reports indicating that military or security personnel were killed in the strikes or that military infrastructure was damaged.

US allies plan to acquire more PrSMs

Despite the concerns raised by the Lamerd strikes, the US and its allies are expanding their planned purchases of the weapon.

Since the attacks, the Pentagon has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract worth more than USD 4 billion aimed at quadrupling PrSM production.

The UK announced in June that it had allocated 130 million pounds (USD 177 million) to procure the missile. Australia purchased PrSMs in 2025 and invested billions of dollars in the programme in April.

Weapons specialists say the missile offers important new capabilities but should be deployed cautiously, particularly around civilian areas.

"Its proper use should be reserved for things like large concentrations of enemy personnel with hard and soft armour," said Wes Bryant, a former Pentagon adviser on precision warfare and civilian harm mitigation.

Trevor Ball, a former explosives expert with the US Army, also warned about the risks to civilians.

"It will kill people outside their homes who aren't protected by walls," he said.

(With inputs from PTI)