National conference MP’s revolt: Will It engulf the Abdullahs?
A new political storm is brewing in the Valley. It is nothing new, as ever since the democratic system came into place seven decades ago, Kashmiris have been accustomed to such developments — sometimes locally created, but most of the time Delhi-engineered. National Conference’s young MP, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, representing the Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency, has revolted against his own party leadership on “ideological grounds”, threatening to open a new and sleazy political chapter. As it is, unease has been prevailing in Jammu and Kashmir after the first elections to the demoted Union Territory’s Assembly two years ago. No, the outcome of the polls did not bring any instability, as the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference secured a majority, which it consolidated with the help of the Congress, CPI(M) and other smaller parties. This was despite the BJP’s inability to form a government in the Muslim-dominated UT, even after pursuing a full-scale strategy, including the delimitation process, to create tailor-made constituencies and deliver a deft political message.
The young and dynamic Mehdi struck earlier than expected. It must have taken the National Conference patriarch, Farooq Abdullah, by surprise, though he has been accustomed to facing such political storms, the biggest being the toppling of his majority government in July 1984 by none other than his own brother-in-law, G M Shah.
However, the two situations are incomparable. This is primarily due to a diametrical shift in New Delhi’s political contours, with an unprecedented approach by the Central Government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to not rest until a political goal is achieved — electorally or manipulatively. This is not to suggest that Jammu and Kashmir had been bereft of political machinations before that. The 1984 developments had their roots in a feud within the extended family of Sher-e-Kashmir Sheikh Abdullah over the selection of his heir apparent. Although, in true dynastic terms and giving little regard to democratic values, Farooq Abdullah was the natural choice to step into his illustrious father’s shoes, the late Sheikh’s old-time associate and close confidant, Mirza Afzal Beg, and his son-in-law, G M Shah, perhaps rightfully expected to be anointed Chief Ministers at different stages. The natural choice, however, fell on Farooq Abdullah.
The context in which young Mehdi has raised a banner of revolt so early in his political life, and immediately after becoming an MP, is entirely different from the Beg-Shah shenanigans. Although the purpose seems similar, Mehdi appears to be frantically searching for an opening to lay claim to a position as a future leader of Kashmir.
Perhaps he knows full well that with the not-so-old Chief Minister Omar Abdullah in the driving seat, he will have to play second fiddle and will have little chance of emerging as a leader in his own right. More so, the Chief Minister has already started politically grooming his two sons with an eye on the future. Mehdi must have his reasons for taking on his party leadership, but it is hardly the best time, with an aggressive BJP at the Centre eyeing a greater role in the Kashmir Valley. The biggest stumbling block remains the National Conference and its leader, Farooq Abdullah. Though he once had no qualms about shaking hands with the BJP, he now keeps his distance given its hardline Hindutva agenda. How could he ignore the outcome of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s alliance with the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah dispensation, which led to the PDP’s political rout in the Kashmir Valley?
It will be interesting to see how, against this backdrop, Mehdi plans to move forward. It is now a foregone conclusion that he will resign from the Lok Sabha and the National Conference, as he has fixed November 3 — the death anniversary of his father — as the D-day for taking this step, which could have far-reaching consequences both for his political future and for the National Conference.
He is a young and energetic leader of the Shia community in Srinagar, Budgam and adjoining areas. Although he has publicly shunned talking about his community lineage whenever asked by the media, it seems he has been doing so in order to widen his reach beyond his own community. That is certainly desirable for new-generation leaders: that they rise above the narrow confines of caste, community and religion. But it is a tough act to perform even in the spectrum of 21st-century Indian politics. All eyes, particularly those of the National Conference leadership and the people at large, will be focused on November 3, 2026, when he plans to hold a big public rally to announce his arrival on the political horizon of Kashmir with a new outlook. Will he float a new political party, or what will be his charter for treading a new but murky political path in Kashmir, which has seen many political experiments unfold but very few succeed?
Even Shah, with his image as a good administrator and a no-nonsense person, could survive for only a little over two years, with the same Central Government — the Congress regime — which had installed him as Chief Minister eventually pulling the rug from beneath his feet. How differently will Mehdi emerge in order to erase his National Conference past and create a political niche for himself? This is an important question. Even more important will be whether he pursues a course independent of New Delhi, overtly or covertly, and what will be his mool-mantra for survival.
He has differed with the National Conference’s top leadership for reneging on its election manifesto promise to fight for the complete restoration of Article 370, which was diluted following the constitutional changes made on August 5, 2019.
He has argued that, by demanding only the restoration of statehood, the Farooq-Omar duo is “deceiving” the people. Somewhere, he has implicitly accused the duo of going soft on the Centre. His political grandstanding may be driven by an eye on his own political future beyond the shadow of the Abdullahs. He seems genuine in demanding that Chief Minister Omar Abdullah should have directly confronted Prime Minister Modi on the Article 370 issue. This is not to suggest that the Chief Minister has done everything right during his two years in office. The National Conference as an organisation also seems to have become inactive and resigned to its fate. It will be of greater interest to see how big a split Mehdi will be able to cause in the National Conference, which has in the past withstood many a political storm of the same sort. Will the octogenarian Dr Farooq Abdullah, in the twilight of his political innings, be able to overcome this situation as he has done in the past? This will be significant because Mehdi’s prime target appears to be Omar Abdullah, thereby setting a clear line of battle. Even if he is unable to cause a significant split in the party, the question arises: will he be able to trigger an ideological schism within the National Conference, which has, to date, survived largely under the protection and patronage of the Abdullahs?
The writer is a political analyst; Views presented are personal.
