Rising fuel prices from the Iran war are pushing children out of school across Asia and Africa, with UNICEF warning up to 23.4 million more children could fall into poverty.

Sou Sreynich dreams of becoming a teacher. But she knows she's far behind.

The 13-year-old first entered a classroom at 10, an age when most Cambodian children already have been in school for years. Her mother waited until she was old enough to swim, fearing the boat to school could capsize, a decision familiar to many parents on Cambodia's Tonle Sap, the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia.

Now, the price of gasoline has spiked because of the Iran war, an additional burden. Unlike outright school closures during COVID-19, the Iran war's impact on education is less visible. But it is falling first and hardest on the poorest families. Soaring fuel prices are making it more expensive for children and teachers to get to school, and for governments to fund education as national budgets come under strain.

On the lake, getting anywhere has always meant navigating the water. Climate change is making it harder, with increasingly unpredictable floods and droughts. Teachers at her school say 10 students have drowned over the years.

If the war continues, it could push up to 23.4 million more children like Sreynich into poverty by the end of the year, according to a recent United Nations Children's Fund report. About 80 per cent of those children would be in Africa and Asia.

Most mornings, a gas-powered boat chugs through Kampong Prahok, steered by students often no older than those climbing aboard. They pull up alongside floating homes, as peers in crisp uniforms clamber aboard, careful to keep their backpacks dry.

Like most on Tonle Sap, Sreynich's family relies on fishing to survive. They earn some money picking chili peppers and gutting fish for others. Rising fuel prices because of the Iran war mean the family can't afford to travel to deeper waters where fish are more plentiful.

When money is tight, Sreynich skips a day or two of school to work alongside her parents. She dreads every absence. “I want to complete my studies,” she said.

Vulnerable children most at risk
For families already living on the edge, the war's ripple effects are forcing difficult choices: whether to pay for food, fuel, rent and electricity, or keep every child in school.

“The Iran war is likely going to force millions of children out of school and could force millions of children to make the decision not to enroll in the first place,” said Sabrina Hervey of the Qatar-based Education Above All Foundation.

Some children in Southeast Asia are dropping out of school to work.

Ly, 16, and her sister Nhi, 13, two of nine children from a fishing family on Vietnam's rocky northern coast, have long drifted in and out of school as the family struggled to make ends meet.

They are identified by their first names only because of Vietnamese laws protecting vulnerable minors.

Their father lost his fishing job after the war pushed diesel prices so high that boat owners could not afford to go out to sea. Already burdened by debt, the family was surviving on his odd jobs. It wasn't enough to keep all nine children fed and in school.

The girls dropped out of school and moved to Vietnam's capital Hanoi to work long hours in a restaurant, where they were exposed to sharp tools, hot surfaces and heavy lifting.

For 13-year-old Nhi it was also illegal because of child labor laws.

In April, the Hanoi-based nonprofit Blue Dragon Children's Foundation intervened and the two returned to school.

The war's impact has unfolded slowly but is devastating, said Michael Brosowski with the foundation.

When families reach a financial breaking point, they tend to go into triage — keeping some children enrolled while pulling others out to work, he said. The children not in school are far more vulnerable to exploitation, trafficking and homelessness.

“It's the tipping point for a lot of families,” Brosowski said.

Higher fuel prices are driving up costs of nearly every part of education, from getting students and teachers to school to stocking classrooms with pencils and chalk. It's more expensive for teachers and aid workers to reach remote communities. Governments are also grappling with rising food and energy bills, leaving less money for education.

In Cambodia, everything already costs more on Tonle Sap since supplies have to be brought in by boat.

“Even the electricity to run this lab is 10-times higher,” said Samphors Vorn of the nonprofit Aide et Action, which supports the school.

Iran war disrupts education worldwide
Developing countries reliant on imported energy have been the most exposed to disruptions from the war. Rising fertilizer costs and falling remittances also are straining these smaller economies.

The war is threatening years of progress in education and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, whose economy already was under strain.

Pressure on the government's finances, driven by rising costs for fuel and subsidies, could leave it with less money to spend on health care and education, warned a report by the UN Development Programme.

In some South Asian nations, girls are likely to be affected more because families tend to prioritize sons, said Arshad Malik of the nonprofit Save the Children International. Economic hardships could mean more girls dropping out of school and an increase in child marriages, he said.

South Asia accounts for 45 per cent of the world's child brides, the highest share of any region, according to UNICEF.

More than 466 million children worldwide receive at least one meal a day at school, according to the UN World Food Programme. These meals help keep children in school, improve their ability to learn and concentrate, and support healthy brain development.

Such programs also could come under pressure as the conflict disrupts fertilizer shipments and raises transport costs, especially in countries in West and Central Africa that rely heavily on imported food, said Hervey, with Education Above All.

Across northern Nigeria, it is becoming more common for children to relapse into malnutrition, according to local health and aid workers.

“I'm really afraid to see what's going to happen,” Hervey said.