India imports record crude despite West Asia crisis

India imported 4.93 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, the highest volume for the month on record, despite geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to data and analysis from energy intelligence firm Kpler.

Russian crude imports rose to around 2.6 million bpd during the month, reinforcing Russia’s position as India’s largest oil supplier, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said. Russian supplies made up for more than half of the country’s overall imports in June, up from 36.5 per cent in May, when it had imported 2.13 million bpd from Moscow, according to Kpler data. Russia has been India’s largest crude supplier since 2022-23, as Indian refiners increased purchases of discounted Russian oil after many European buyers reduced imports following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The record import volumes underscore India’s ability to maintain crude supplies through diversified sourcing even as conflict in West Asia raised concerns over global energy shipments and briefly pushed up oil prices.

“India’s crude imports have quietly demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past 100 days. Over the past 100 days, India has arguably been one of the best-positioned major importers, successfully maintaining crude inflows through proactive diversification and procurement strategies,” he said. Indian refiners have largely secured crude supplies through the first half of August, as cargoes are typically booked one to two months in advance, Ritolia said. That leaves refiners with limited immediate need for additional purchases even if geopolitical risks persist.

“India imported 4.93 million bpd of crude in June, the highest June volume on record, despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, Russian crude imports climbed to around 2.6 million bpd, reaffirming Russia’s position as India’s largest and most important crude supplier,” he said.

The ability to sustain record import levels while increasing purchases from Russia underscores the success of Indian refiners in diversifying supply and managing refinery economics, he added.

Looking ahead, global crude supplies are expected to remain adequate, supported by higher exports from Africa, Russia and Venezuela, increased output by OPEC+ producers and the continued movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, he said.

The recent decline in international crude prices also suggests the market is becoming less concerned about near-term supply disruptions.

Ritolia said he does not expect a meaningful resumption of Iranian crude imports into India in the near term.

While one or two opportunistic cargoes could arrive in July or August, refiners are already largely covered for feedstock requirements through early August. Any sustained return of Iranian crude would depend on the regulatory environment after the current sanctions waiver expires on August 21, he said.

India, the world’s third-largest importer and consumer of crude oil, meets more than 88 per cent of its oil requirement through imports and has sharply increased purchases of discounted Russian crude since 2022. “Looking ahead, India’s crude import position also appears comfortable. Refiners typically procure crude cargoes one to two months in advance, implying that feedstock requirements through August are largely secured. Beyond that, the global supply outlook remains supportive,” Ritolia said. Rising exports from Africa, Russia, and Venezuela, together with higher OPEC+ production and continued crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, should provide ample sourcing options.

The recent decline in crude prices also suggests that the market is increasingly comfortable with supply availability (as for now at least) despite lingering geopolitical risks, he said. “Overall, India’s crude import portfolio remains well diversified, well balanced, and adequately covered. Unless there is a material disruption to global physical supplies, Indian refiners are well positioned to meet crude requirements while continuing to optimise procurement economics,” he added.