India can return to 7% GDP in FY28 on macro stability: CEA

Macro stability and supply measures can bring back India on a 7 per cent growth trajectory in FY28, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday, asserting that the growth is contingent on improvement in external conditions.

The Reserve Bank on Friday lowered its GDP forecast for FY27 to 6.6 per cent from the 6.9 per cent estimated in April, citing elevated energy and other commodity prices, as well as continued supply disruptions arising from the conflict in West Asia, which are likely to weigh on economic activity.

“We have no reason to second-guess them (Reserve Bank of India forecast) at this point, because there are both possibilities on the upside and on the downside with respect to the numbers that they have presented,” he said here.

“So, even if the growth were to slip below 7 per cent as the RBI forecast suggests...macro stability measures and supply assurances will bring us back to a 7 per cent plus growth track in FY28 or as soon as external conditions improve,” he said.

He further said it is a hope based on the assumption that the pre-February 28 condition is restored before FY28.

“Now, if these conditions continue, then we will revisit the estimate for the next financial year,” he added. Talking about nominal GDP, he said, it is a fair estimate that it will overshoot the 10.1 per cent estimated in the Budget 2027, given the upward momentum of retail inflation.

“The good news is that the nominal GDP growth will be significantly higher than the number which the budget estimates used, which is 10.1 per cent for the current financial year,” he said.