Hyderabad may see a ‘cold-free’ winter as El Niño strengthens, IMD forecasts warmer October
After a dry monsoon, Hyderabad may now be heading for a winter with little chill, as a strengthening El Niño and the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) above-normal temperature outlook point to a warmer-than-usual season.
Hyderabad recorded 458.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 627.2 mm during the 2026 water year up to September, a deficit of about 27 per cent, according to the Hyderabad Ground Water Department. Telangana as a whole ended the southwest monsoon season, which ran from June 1 to September 30, with a 17 per cent deficit and was officially placed in the normal category.
In its seasonal outlook, IMD said above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in October, barring some regions. It also expects most parts of the country to receive below-normal rainfall for the month. IMD has said it will release the outlook for November towards the end of October.
A major factor behind the warm outlook is El Niño, a climate pattern marked by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. IMD says strong El Niño conditions are currently prevailing and are expected to strengthen through the end of the year. The pattern can reshape rainfall, temperatures and the odds of extreme weather in different parts of the world.
Even in October, when the mercury usually begins to fall, Hyderabad remains warm. The highest maximum temperature in the city was recorded in Saidabad at 35 degrees Celsius, while the highest minimum was 26 degrees Celsius in Bahadurpura.
With El Niño expected to persist, a warmer-than-normal winter, with fewer cold days than usual, is possible in the city. IMD does expect normal rainfall over south peninsular India from October to December. The winter-season temperature outlook is yet to be issued.
