Growing gap between renewable energy, transmission capacity key credit risk: Ind-Ra
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday said the growing gap between renewable energy (RE) commissioning and transmission readiness is emerging as a key credit risk for the sector.
Around 112 GW of the planned 196 GW RE pipeline till FY32 remains aligned with transmission schedules, about 84 GW of capacity faces delays in general network access (GNA) operationalisation, highlighting a persistent transmission execution gap, it said in a statement.
Ind-Ra projects a 32 GW mismatch between generation and transmission for projects to be commissioned by H2, FY27. This gap may widen to 40 GW, if interstate transmission system (ISTS) commissioning is delayed by three more months beyond the current commissioning timelines.
If a project operates ahead of transmission readiness, it must use temporary general network access (T-GNA), which can lead to curtailment due to grid constraints.
Ind-Ra-rated renewable projects have not witnessed material rating pressure from transmission delays so far, supported by repayment moratoriums, liquidity buffers, and sponsor support mechanisms.
However, prolonged transmission bottlenecks could weaken capital structure and lead to sustained reliance on sponsors.
Utility-backed projects benefit from partial protection, as the scheduled commercial operation date (SCOD) under power purchase agreements (PPA) is allowed till 30-60 days post-receipt of the final GNA.
For commercial & industrial projects, risks could arise if consumers have the option to exit the project as per respective PPA terms due to prolonged delays in final GNA and consequent supply being lower than committed level during T-GNA period.
Ind-Ra believes the challenge is no longer transmission planning, but its timely execution.
While around 57 per cent of the RE pipeline remains synchronised with transmission commissioning timelines, nearly 84 GW continues to face delays ranging from a few months to over a year.
“Risks are increasingly concentrated in a handful of large RE hubs, where evacuation infrastructure continues to lag generation capacity additions, with an average delay exceeding six months. Key RE hubs contribute significantly to the 84GW capacity associated with GNA delays, accounting for nearly 42GW of the total.
“This indicates execution slippages at a limited number of substations could materially influence RE integration across India”, says Peeush Middha, Associate Director, Infrastructure, Ind-Ra.
