Geopolitical situation, earnings, crude prices key factors to drive markets, say analysts

The US-Iran geopolitical conflict, quarterly earnings announcements, and crude oil price movement will influence investor sentiments in domestic equities, according to analysts.

Besides, monsoon trend, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors will also be closely watched by market participants, they added.

“Domestically, investors will closely monitor June CPI inflation, WPI inflation, and the latest foreign exchange reserves,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

The Q1 FY27 earnings season will gather pace, with management commentary expected to play a pivotal role in shaping sectoral trends and earnings expectations, he said.

Globally, developments surrounding the Iran-US conflict and their impact on crude oil prices will remain key monitorables, Mishra added.

After four straight months of selling, foreign investors turned net buyers of Indian equities in July, investing over Rs 15,157 crore so far this month, supported by improving domestic macroeconomic indicators, a stable rupee and better global risk sentiment.

“This week will see earnings from several companies, including HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Union Bank, Federal Bank,” Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the macroeconomic front, inflation data will remain an important trigger, he said.

India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be released on Monday, followed by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on Tuesday, Meena said, adding that investors will also closely monitor the progress of monsoon, given its implications for rural demand and inflation.

Globally, developments surrounding the US-Iran situation will remain crucial, particularly for their impact on crude oil prices, he said.

In the US, CPI inflation data on Tuesday and PPI (Producer Price Inflation) data on Wednesday will be closely watched, as they could influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, Meena added.

Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex declined 194.52 points, or 0.25 per cent, and the NSE Nifty dipped 63.95 points, or 0.26 per cent.