Geopolitical developments, crude oil prices major drivers for market movement: Analysts
Crude oil prices and developments in the US-Iran conflict will remain the primary factors influencing stock market movements this week, according to analysts.
“Investors will closely monitor the Jackson Hole symposium, particularly comments from the US Federal Reserve Chairman, for indications on the future trajectory of interest rates. US GDP estimates, durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also provide important clues on the strength of the US economy and the Fed’s policy outlook,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
On the domestic front, investors will track rupee movement, foreign institutional flows and domestic liquidity conditions, he added.
“Global markets head into the coming week with investor attention centred on three key themes: the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, Nvidia’s quarterly results and the unresolved US-Iran conflict.
“Against a backdrop of volatile long-dated Treasury yields, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium will be closely scrutinised for clues on how the central bank is weighing persistent inflation risks against signs of a softer labour market ahead of its September policy meeting,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.
Crude oil remains the other major external risk, he said.
“The 60-day US-Iran agreement expired without a lasting settlement, leaving the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of an unresolved confrontation and normal energy flows through the region disrupted,” Ponmudi added.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have accelerated buying in Indian equities this month, infusing Rs 23,544 crore so far in August.
Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex declined 468.42 points, or 0.60 per cent, and the NSE Nifty dipped 114 points, or 0.46 per cent.
“After two weeks of correction in the Nifty, Indian equity markets could consolidate, with marginal recovery expected in the near term. Key monitorables include Brent crude prices, which are anchored above $90/barrel and geopolitical developments,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said.
