ECI announces Rajya Sabha polls across 3 States

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday announced elections to 12 Rajya Sabha seats across Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal on October 16.  The polls will cover 10 seats in Uttar Pradesh, one in Uttarakhand and a bypoll to one seat in West Bengal.  Based on the present assembly arithmetic, the BJP-led alliance is expected to win eight seats, while the Samajwadi Party is projected to secure two. The BJP’s overall strength in the Rajya Sabha is likely to increase by one, with the party set to bag the lone seat in West Bengal.

The BJP had eight of the 10 outgoing Uttar Pradesh seats, while the Samajwadi Party and the BSP held one seat each. The results could leave the BSP without representation in the Rajya Sabha, as the party does not have the numbers to retain Ramji Gautam’s seat on its own. The Rajya Sabha elections come ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls due next year.

According to the ECI, the notification will be issued on September 29, nominations can be filed until October 6 and counting will take place on October 16.  In Uttar Pradesh, the members retiring include BJP leaders Arun Singh, Geeta Shakya, Neeraj Shekhar, Brijlal, BL Verma, Seema Dwivedi and Hardeep Singh Puri, Samajwadi Party leader Ram Gopal Yadav and BSP’s Ramji Gautam. Puri’s continuation in the Union Cabinet hinges on whether the BJP nominates him again for another term. The seat held by former Uttar Pradesh deputy chief minister Dinesh Sharma has also been vacant since September 11, when his resignation took effect following his appointment as lieutenant governor of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The BJP-led alliance has around 290 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh, while the SP-Congress combine has about 103. A candidate needs around 37 votes to win a Rajya Sabha seat. The BJP can comfortably win seven seats, and the SP-Congress combine can secure two. For the final seat, the BJP is likely to start with around 31 votes against around 29 for the SP-Congress side, giving the ruling alliance an advantage. The BSP managed to send Gautam to the Rajya Sabha in 2020, when the BJP fielded only eight candidates for 10 seats, enabling the BSP and the SP to each elect one member unopposed. The results could leave the BSP without representation in the Rajya Sabha, as the party does not have the numbers to retain Ramji Gautam’s seat on its own. The BSP currently has no MLA in Uttar Pradesh following the death of its lone legislator, Uma Shankar Singh, in August.

In Uttarakhand, BJP member Naresh Bansal’s term is coming to an end. The West Bengal bypoll has been necessitated by the resignation of Rukmini Mallik, popularly known as actor Koel Mallick, on July 16. The winner will serve the remainder of her term, which runs until April 2, 2032.

The ECI has also directed Returning Officers to provide integrated violet-coloured sketch pens of a specified design for marking preferences on ballot papers.

BJP’s tally in the 245-member Rajya Sabha reached 116 after three TMC MPs, who had resigned, were re-elected to House unopposed on BJP tickets. The tally had increased to 113 MPs in April after the Aam Aadmi Party’s legislature unit in the House merged with it. The BJP-led NDA has at least 144 members in the Rajya Sabha, excluding the seven nominated members. A party or a coalition needs the support of 123 members to command a majority in the Upper House.

Meanwhile, in a separate order, the ECI announced biennial elections for 28 seats in the Legislative Councils of Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh will elect members to 11 seats, comprising five Graduates’ and six Teachers’ constituencies.