Brazil's presidential vote pits Trump ally against incumbent Lula

Brazilians began voting Sunday in a high-stakes presidential election pitting incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, ideological opposites who are each seen as having a shot at an outright victory.

If no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will head to a runoff on Oct. 25 in Latin America's economic powerhouse. Ten other candidates are expected to garner much smaller numbers of votes on Sunday.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of US President Donald Trump. Lula, who, at 80, is one of the world's oldest heads of state, is running in his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil's ties with Beijing. Trump allies have found support in recent years in some Latin American countries, including Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in this tense political showdown.  Where Bolsonaro has leaned into his ideological alliance with Trump, Lula has criticised the Washington incumbent president has often spoken about risks of US intervention in the Brazilian elections after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs against Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of the country's ambassador in Washington and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the investigation that ended up resulting in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's predecessor.

Lula told journalists after voting Sunday that he needs “to do double of what we have done” if reelected, and expressed confidence he would win in the first round.

Flavio Bolsonaro has touted his proximity to the White House, although he denies his campaign received help from the US government. He has insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including the rare minerals economy. Brazil estimates that its deposits hold up to 21 million tons, second only to China. Bolsonaro has also campaigned on releasing his father from his 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup, and bringing him back to politics.

“Brazil needs change. Brazil can't stand so much suffering,” he told reporters at the Rio de Janeiro voting centre, where he cast his vote Sunday. Brazilians will also elect 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal members of the lower house of Congress and 54 of the country's 81 senators in Sunday's vote.

Rosane Wink, 67, a retired engineer, is a lifelong conservative voter who supports the former president's son and his promise to classify criminal groups as terrorist organisations.

“It's a kind of terrorism that they're doing with us,” said Wink as she voted in Rio de Janeiro. Last month she had a gun held to her stomach as a criminal bit her hand and removed her wedding ring, she said.

Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cell phone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro because she wants freedom to express her Evangelical religion. She hopes he follows in his father's footsteps.

“I voted for his father, and I don't regret it,” she said.

Rosangela Resende da Rocha, a 69-year-old who was previously a stay-at-home mom, said she supported Lula's social policies that help the “less fortunate” and that he stands up to Trump.

“That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said at a voting centre in Brasilia. “He won't succeed if Lula wins.”

Even for those outside the country, Lula's social programs drove many to continue supporting him.

“Thank God I do not need (the help of) social programs, but I vote for those that need them: health, education, basic sanitation, housing, food,” said Catia Oliveira, a 61-year-old Brazilian who cast her vote from Portugal.

Thomas Traumann, a political consultant based in Rio de Janeiro, says last-minute mistakes by either candidate or by their allies could make all the difference for undecided voters.       (AP )

“Polarisation in Brazil created a trap. There's no third candidate. You only have two options, and they fight each other in an atmosphere that becomes worse and worse,” Traumann said. “It is much more a competition of accusations than a competition of proposals.”

Four years ago, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by 2.1 million votes -- a margin of just under 2 percentage points. At the time, Brazilians were upset with the then president's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his repeated threats against democracy, his attacks on the electronic voting system and the poor shape of the nation's economy as inflation was on the rise.

Now, the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.

Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, says some voters have grown weary of Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as president. He is one of the oldest presidents on the continent, along with Trump and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, both of whom are also 80.

“Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so,” Melo said.

Bolsonaro has seen his political career tainted by several corruption accusations, the latest of them involving a disgraced banker paying him millions of dollars, allegedly to produce a movie on his father's life. More recently, he has been under fire from Roman Catholics who fear he might make too many concessions to his evangelical base.