Billions for climate, but where is the justice?

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was created in 2010 during the 16th Conference of Parties (CoP) of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to operationalise climate finance under the UNFCCC and now serves the Paris Agreement under Article 9.  As the largest dedicated multilateral climate fund, it sits at the centre of global efforts to translate the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities into practice. However, the real question is not whether the GCF exists, but whether it is delivering climate justice. When assessed against criteria such as additionality, adequacy, balance between adaptation and mitigation, predictability, and broader climate justice dimensions, the record appears mixed.

Several justice pillars shape climate finance. Distributive justice concerns fair allocation of climate costs based on equity, need, capacity, and responsibility. Procedural justice emphasises inclusive decision-making. Reparative justice addresses who should bear climate-related losses. Recognition justice values diverse affected communities. Intergenerational justice holds present generations accountable to future ones.

There have been several contestations with respect to how much climate finance have already been mobilised. This is where the controversy surrounding the $100 billion target becomes relevant. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that the annual $100 billion climate finance target was met in 2022. However, this claim has been widely contested. A substantial share of reported finance consists of loans. Loan-heavy finance shifts financial risk onto developing countries, burdening them further.

Starting with Additionality. Climate finance was never meant to be a rebranded form of development assistance. It is grounded in historical responsibility and ecological debts. From a reparative justice perspective, climate finance should be new, in addition to existing aid commitments. If it simply replaces development assistance or is provided primarily through loans, its moral foundation weakens.

The Green Climate Fund performs better than many bilateral channels by providing a mix of grants and concessional finance, with a strong grant component for vulnerable countries. It maintains a balance between adaptation and mitigation funding, prioritises Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, and strengthens country ownership through readiness support and direct access for national institutions. However, it does not operate in isolation from the broader political economy of climate finance. Ambiguities surrounding what constitutes additional finance persist. If climate finance is indistinguishable from development assistance, accountability for historical emissions becomes blurred. In principle, the GCF supports additionality. In practice, however, its ability to fully realise reparative justice is constrained by the contribution patterns of donor states and systemic limitations in global finance.

The scale of climate needs far exceeds available finance. with estimates suggesting that around USD 1.3 trillion per year may be required by 2035 to adequately support mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. GCF prioritises least developed countries, small island developing states, and African states, directing a substantial share of resources toward Africa and the Asia-Pacific. This reflects an effort to address differentiated vulnerability and advance distributive and recognition justice. However, justice is not only about distribution; it is also about volume. The GCF relies on voluntary contributions and periodic replenishments.  Even the most carefully designed allocation framework cannot compensate for insufficient total finance. The inadequacy of the $100 billion goal became evident in negotiations leading to the New Quantified Goal (NQG) agreed at COP29 of UNFCCC . It calls for mobilising at least $300 billion annually, within a broader ambition of scaling finance to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. This shift recognises that the previous target was materially inadequate. Yet it remains politically negotiated rather than legally binding. Without stronger accountability, transparent reporting, and a greater emphasis on grant-based finance, the structural weaknesses exposed under the $100 billion regime may simply be carried forward. The balance between adaptation and mitigation is one area where the GCF is trying to promote a clearer justice orientation. The Fund is mandated to allocate 50 per cent of its resources to adaptation and 50 per cent to mitigation, with half of adaptation finance directed to particularly vulnerable countries. This structure acknowledges both present vulnerability and future risk. Adaptation finance advances distributive and recognition justice by supporting communities already facing climate impacts. Mitigation finance advances intergenerational justice by limiting harm to future generations. Further, there has been limited participation by local communities in the decision making or if it is , its mere tokenism. However, proportional balance alone does not guarantee justice. Adaptation needs in vulnerable regions often exceed available funding, and projects may remain incremental rather than transformative. According to scholars working in the domain of climate finance the funds disbursed are mostly generic in nature and are not tailor made for specific country realities. They are also not in proportion to the scale of vulnerability and are concentrated in few countries. If adaptation finance fails to match vulnerability levels, distributive justice is weakened. Similarly, global mitigation ambition remains insufficient, threatening intergenerational equity regardless of the GCF’s internal allocation ratios. The justice implications of balance, therefore, depend on adequacy and effectiveness.

Developing countries require reliable and stable financial flows to plan long-term climate strategies and have stable climate investment planning.  Predictable finance strengthens procedural justice by enabling sustained participation and country-driven planning. Although the GCF has expanded its portfolio, reliance on voluntary replenishments introduces uncertainty. Delays in pledges and disbursements affect implementation timelines and strategic planning. When finance is unpredictable, national climate programs fragment and long term adaptation planning suffers. This also weakens recognition and distributive justice by failing to respond consistently to urgent needs. The GCF represents a serious institutional attempt to embed justice principles within climate finance governance. Its country-driven model and adaptation-mitigation mandate reflect deliberate normative commitments. However, institutional design cannot compensate for structural political constraints. Ambiguities around additionality, insufficient overall finance, reliance on voluntary contributions, governance dominance by donors and limited predictability restrict its capacity to operationalise reparative, distributive, recognition, and intergenerational justice. Further limited participation of local communities continues to limit its effectiveness. The move toward a New Quantified Goal signals the acknowledgement that climate finance must be scaled up. Whether this acknowledgement translates into substantial implementation is something to be observed. The GCF advances climate justice in principle and partial practice. Whether it can fulfil that promise ultimately depends on political will and whether historical responsibility is treated not as rhetoric, but as a binding obligation within the global climate finance regime.

Prachi Malik is a Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge; views are personal