A state caught in the regional crossfire

While Jordan and Iran have never been outright enemies, competing strategic interests, shifting alliances and Iran’s expanding influence have turned a once-cordial relationship into one marked by mistrust and geopolitical friction

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attack on an American military base in Jordan, which killed at least two US soldiers, triggered another cycle of retaliation between Washington and Tehran. Iranian military sites were subsequently targeted, while Jordanian forces reported intercepting additional Iranian missiles and drones. The episode suggested that Jordan, despite efforts to remain insulated from regional conflicts, was being drawn deeper into the widening confrontation between Iran and the United States.

This was not the first time Jordan found itself caught in the crossfire. In April 2024, during Iran’s first direct large-scale attack on Israel, the Jordanian Air Force intercepted and destroyed Iranian drones and missiles passing through its airspace towards Israel. Tehran viewed the action as assistance to Israel, reinforcing its suspicion of Amman’s strategic alignment.

Yet Iran’s historical hostility towards Jordan has been primarily strategic rather than ideological or sectarian. Jordan is targeted less because of its domestic character and more because of its geography, alliances and role in the regional security architecture. Positioned between Iran’s sphere of influence and Israel, closely aligned with the United States, and central to Western security arrangements, Jordan occupies a sensitive position in the Middle Eastern balance of power.

This alignment is notable given Jordan’s demographic complexity. An estimated 50-60 per cent of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian origin, including prominent figures such as Queen Rania, wife of King Abdullah II, whose family roots are Palestinian. Despite this demographic reality and widespread public sympathy for the Palestinian cause, the Jordanian state has continued to prioritise strategic ties with Washington and maintain a cautious security relationship with Israel.

The relationship between Jordan and Iran has evolved through decades of shifting alliances, ideological competition and competing visions for the Middle East. Although the two countries have maintained diplomatic relations and experienced periods of limited engagement, their ties have largely been defined by mistrust, particularly since the Iranian Revolution of 1979.

Before the revolution, relations were considerably warmer. Both Jordan and Iran were monarchies, i.e., the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Pahlavi monarchy of Iran. Both maintained close partnerships with Western powers (and even with Israel) during the Cold War. They shared concerns about revolutionary movements and regional instability, including the influence of Arab nationalist movements inspired by Gamal Abdel Nasser.

The Iranian Revolution fundamentally altered these equations. The establishment of the Islamic Republic transformed Iran from a traditional monarchy into an ideological state challenging Western influence and seeking greater regional sway. Tehran’s support for regional militant movements and opposition to US-aligned governments unsettled Arab monarchies, including Jordan. Amman, dependent on Western security partnerships and moderate Arab alliances, became increasingly wary of Iran’s ambitions.

The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988 marked a further deterioration in relations. Jordan supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, providing economic and political assistance during its war with Iran. For Tehran, Jordan’s backing of Baghdad represented alignment with an opposing regional camp and reinforced its distrust of Amman.

Relations remained restrained in subsequent decades, but tensions intensified after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. The removal of Saddam Hussein allowed Iran to expand its influence among Iraq’s Shia political parties and armed groups. Jordan feared that Iranian influence was extending through Iraq into Syria and Lebanon, creating a continuous arc of political and military influence across the region.

In 2004, King Abdullah II warned of a potential “Shia crescent” stretching from Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The phrase reflected Jordanian concerns about Iran-backed networks following the collapse of Iraq’s Baathist regime. Critics argued that the concept overstated sectarian divisions, while supporters viewed it as an early recognition of Iran’s growing regional footprint.

The Syrian civil war after 2011 further sharpened these differences. Iran became a principal supporter of Bashar al-Assad’s government, providing military, financial and political backing. Jordan, sharing a border with Syria, became increasingly concerned about instability, Iranian-aligned militias near its territory and cross-border trafficking networks. These concerns strengthened Jordan’s reliance on security cooperation with Western and Arab partners.

Despite these tensions, Jordan and Iran have avoided a complete diplomatic rupture. Both understand the risks of direct confrontation and have maintained channels of communication. Jordan’s principal concerns today revolve around Iranian-backed armed groups, cross-border insecurity and the wider competition between Iran and US-aligned states for influence in the Middle East.

For Iran, Jordan represents a state closely integrated into the American-led regional security system and linked to Israel through a peace treaty. For Jordan, Iran is not an existential military threat in the conventional sense, but its expanding regional influence represents a challenge to Jordan’s security calculations.

The history of Jordan-Iran relations, therefore, reflects a wider pattern in Middle Eastern politics: cooperation when interests converge, but rivalry when competing visions of regional order collide.

From the relatively cordial relationship of the pre-1979 era to today’s strategic tensions, the dispute has been shaped less by direct hostility between the two peoples and more by the broader contest for influence, security and political dominance that has defined the modern Middle East. In this context, Jordan’s involvement in the current Iran-US confrontation is not an unexpected development, but the latest chapter in a long-running geopolitical struggle.

The Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988 marked a further deterioration in relations. Jordan supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, providing economic and political assistance during its war with Iran. For Tehran, Jordan’s backing of Baghdad represented alignment with an opposing regional camp and reinforced its distrust of Amman

The writer, a military veteran, is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry; Views presented are personal.