Words are spreading fast in western Uttar Pradesh that it would be the last election of Chaudhary Ajit Singh and so for the Jat pride ensured victory of Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhary from Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat parliamentary constituencies respectively.
Both the constituencies will go to polls in the first phase on April 11.
“It is no less than a contest of pride for father and son duo. Their prestige is at stake. They cannot afford a loss this time and, therefore, are campaigning hard to ensure victory on both the seats,” Mukesh Saran, a professor in Chaudhary Charan Singh University in Meerut said.
There is sense of déjà vu in the state headquarters of the Rashtriya Lok Dal in the state capital. The local leaders believe that both the Chaudharys – Ajit and Jayant – are sure to win this time. They believe there is no contest for them in this election. They are citing victory in Kairana as the beginning of the ‘achche din’ of the RLD.
What makes them confident is the ‘mahagathbandhan’, the contours of which have started taking shape in western Uttar Pradesh. The arithmetic of caste goes in favour of father and son. In Muzaffarnagar, where Ajit Singh is an alliance candidate, the total number of voters is around 16 lakh. Of this, Muslims are approximately six lakh, Dalits are 3 lakh and Jats are 3.30 lakh. If the parties like the SP and BSP are able to transfer their votes then Ajit Singh is sure to win the election as he has already around 13 lakh votes in his kitty.
Similarly, in Baghpat, where Jayant Chaudhary is in the fray Gujjars and Jats constitute 38 per cent of the population while Muslims account for 23.8 per cent of eligible votes. Here too arithmetic goes in favour of Chotta Chaudhary and it is believed that he will win easily. Baghpat is considered RLD’s bastion. Ajit Singh had contested eight elections from here and won six times.
But in elections, it is not arithmetic that always works. The winning mantra lies with the chemistry. “The chemistry too seems to be working at the village level. In 2014, RLD suffered because Jats sided with the BJP after Muzaffarnagar riots. That time a message went deep down to the village level that Ajit Singh did not help the Jats who suffered during the riot. In last five years, Singh has made amends. He built the bridge through Bhaichara rallies,” Saran said. Secondly, he added, both Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar are adjacent constituencies and can influence each other. This will go in favour of the father and son duo.