The stage has been set for the first phase of the crucial seven phase upcoming Assembly polls in the state. The first phase, covering 73 assembly seats in the communally sensitive 15 districts of western UP, will witness at least four cornered contest on February 11, the day of polling.
There are 840 candidates in the fray for the first phase polling, in which the highest number of candidates are in Agra south seat (26) and lowest of six each in Hastinapur , loni and Iglas seats.
The prominent seats where a keen tussle would be witnessed are the Noida seat where Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh’s son Pankaj is making debut in electoral politics and in Mathura where Congress legislature party leader Pradeep Mathur is facing tough challenge from the BJP leader Shrikant Sharma, the national spokesperson of the party.
Besides, Muzaffarnagar riot accused Sangeet Singh Som fate would be decided in the first phase from Sardhana seat in Meerut. The Jat and Muslim dominated western UP will witness some direct fight between the BJP and BSP but in several seats, the SP-Congress alliance and the Rashtriya lok Dal (RlD) could surprise the formidable contestants. The bickering within the BJP over candidate’s selection could adversely affect their prospect, which is totally banking on the polarisation of the elections and roping in all the majority community votes as happened during the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
However, exodus of Hindus from Kairana in Shamli district and communal riots in Muzaffarnagar are likely to dominate the minds of the voters and may go against the electoral interests of the SP-Congress alliance. The resentment among the Jat community over the denial of their demand for caste based reservation could prove to be detrimental for the BJP.
Political parties are yet to launch their campaign in the first phase of polling and the electioneering would pick up in the first week of February. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the star campaigner for the BJP, will launch his election meetings from Meerut on February 4 followed by in Aligarh on February 7, in Bijnore on February10 and in Pilibhit on February 22; BSP president Mayawati will launch her party’s campaign from February 1 by addressing three meetings in Meerut, Baghpat and Aligarh.
SP-Congress combine would also hold two joint rallies in each of the seven phase elections. Akhikesh Yadav and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi would campaign separately for their candidates. The SP-Congress alliance was trying to dent into the Muslim and upper caste vote bank but confusion in their alliance has dented their electoral prospects. . At least in three assembly seats in the first phase—Baldev in Mathura, Kol in Aligarh and Purkazi in Muzaffarnagar —have SP and Congress candidates contesting against each other.
Candidates by the RlD led by Ajit Singh, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi and other smaller parties would impact the fate of the bigger parties and could spoil their fate. Owaisi is already aggressively campaigning in Muslim-dominated areas of western UP for the past couple of weeks, while RlD is banking on its core Jat vote bank. RlD is contesting in 59 seats in the first phase. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the results in these 73 assembly segments were 24 in favour of SP , 23 for BSP, 12 for BJP, nine for RlD and five for Congress.