Stakes of Samajwadi Party is so high on 10 lok Sabha seats of western Uttar Pradesh, going to the polls on April 10, as it would set the tone and tenor of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s ambitions to become Prime Minister.
It will probably the first elections in the recent times when the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party is going to polls with the handicap of not being the first choice of Muslims in the state. The ire of the people in general and Muslims in particular over the handling of Muzaffarnagar riots leading to the situation that look like not considering the Samajwadi Party as their ‘first choice’ coupled with common perception of poor governance in the state over the past two years has left SP to the ‘acid test’.
Of the 10 lok sabha seats, Muzaffarnagar is the one Parliamentary constituency whose people have set the tone for on other seats, political analysts feel. SP, already a smaller identity in the first phase as it had only one sitting member at Bulandshahr lok sabha seat while Mayawati-led BSP leads with five seats namely Saharanpur, Aligarh, Gautambudhnagar, Kairana and Muzaffarnagar followed by Ajit Singh-led RlD on Baghpat and Bijnore and the BJP on Ghaziabad and Meerut.
Such is the predicament of the SP that Mr Yadav had to issue a ‘sweet threat’ to the ‘Shiksha Mitras’, the contract teachers, to vote for the party or their concessions will be withdrawn. The SP president and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav are at pains convincing the electorate of western UP of the measures taken by the government during and after the riots but the emotions still run high. They are campaigning hard in the region which has never been a stronghold of the SP.
The ruling party in Uttar Pradesh has always depended upon the combination of Muslims-Yadav but this time, the party would have to make special efforts to win back the minorities.
The confusion among the SP lot is aggravated after Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid Syed Bukhari issued an appeal to Muslims in support of the Congress but was rejected by intellegesia class of Deoband in Saharanpur district. The cleric of Deoband discarded the appeal of the Shahi Imam and asked the Muslims to go for individual party or candidate who could defeat the BJP.
The problems of SP have been further increased after Maulana Tauqir, the head of Ittehad-e-Millat Council, an influential clerics of Barelvi sect of Muslims extended support to BSP candidate of Moradabad constituency a couple of days ago.
The message is, thus, clear that the Muslims comprised of about 20 per cent of total electorate in this region are likely to do ‘tactical voting’ against the BJP with no clear cut allegiance of any particular party or candidate.
SP, also faced with anti-incumbency’ factor, will find it hard to make inroads in the Jat land of western parts of UP where the communal divide after Muzaffarnagar may harm the prospects of the party in power in the state.