After losing the Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha bypolls, the Samajwadi Party leadership is looking for the scapegoats and has to decode what went wrong in both the parliamentary constituencies, seen as a cakewalk for it.
Sources in the SP said the party had to introspect and decide how it intended to conduct its politics after the debacle in Rampur and Azamgarh.
“The Muslims deserted the SP and voted for defeating its candidate in Azamgarh and in Rampur, despite over 50 per cent population of Muslims, they did not vote for the victory of the SP candidate and the results were same in both the constituencies – the SP lost,” said a SP leader adding , “Bahujan Samaj Party candidate in Azamgarh, Guddu Jamali, polled 2.5 lakh votes and even if 20 per cent of these votes had gone to the SP, Dharmendra Yadav would have won.”
“For the 2022 polls, the SP had forged a coalition of non-Yadav Other Backward Class parties which impressed the Muslims and they voted in droves, yet the SP was short of the magic number of 203 in the UP assembly. Even Mulayam Singh Yadav never got such an overwhelming support of the minority community. The SP never tried to decode what went wrong,” said SP leader.
The political observers feel that the SP, after impressive improvement in its tally of 111 seats and 14 of the allies, became complacent and took the voters for granted.
A SP leader said, “Even the BSP cannot take Jatav votes for granted and they have shifted towards the Bharatiya Janata Party. As things stand today Yadavs may also shift to the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”
“Muslims were angry with the SP’s inaction over the long detention of Mohammad Azam Khan for 27 months and demolition of the petrol pump of Muslim SP MLA Shazil Islam in Bareilly. Akhilesh Yadav just issued a tweet. The indifference of the SP leadership infuriated the Muslim leaders and it was visible in Rampur and Azamgarh,” said political analyst Prof Abhay Dube.
Why was Akhilesh Yadav reluctant to speak for Azam Khan and protest the demolition of the petrol pump of his party MLA? he asked.
“Akhilesh Yadav is caught in the trap laid by the BJP as he is reluctant to take up the cudgels for the Muslims. The BJP has created a phobia among its rival political parties that if a party speaks for the Muslims then it will alienate and antagonise the Hindu community,” Prof Dube said.
“This phobia does not stand scrutiny if the voting pattern of different communities in previous elections is examined. If one Hindu votes for the BJP then the other Hindu votes against the BJP. All the OBC communities which voted for the SP are Hindus and not Muslims. Muslim voters made a contribution in the victory of the SP candidates in a large number of constituencies in the 2022 assembly polls and the SP won on the strength of Hindu voters,” Prof Dube said and added, “If Akhilesh Yadav shows the courage of conviction and demands justice for Muslims, that their establishments would not be demolished without the due process of law, by mobilising the party cadre then it will add to his political stature,” he added.
“Akhilesh Yadav should have taken cudgels against the demolition drive by the Yogi Adityanath government using bulldozers. It may not fetch him immediate political dividends but huge political returns are guaranteed in long term politics which will catapult him as a leader of the poor and the downtrodden. The stance against bulldozers is likely to get him national and global acclaim. It is highly erroneous to believe that only Muslims are targeted, homes and roadside business establishments of poor Hindus have also been demolished in many towns of Uttar Pradesh,” Prof Dube said and added, “Other opposition parties will also rally around the Samajwadi Party as the message will go down that Akhilesh Yadav has broken new ice in electoral politics, but for reasons known only to Akhilesh Yadav, he has taken no initiative so far.”