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With the opposition parties rallying behind the agitated farmers protesting against the new farm laws for the last about four months, and if the massive crowds at the rallies of Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal is any indicator towards their growing influence over the 'annadata', it would be a litmus test for the Bharatiya Janata Party to keep its vote intact.
The outcome of the efforts made by the opposition parties to corner the BJP assume great significance in the current context as Uttar Pradesh is to hold its three-tier panchayat elections in April\May this year followed by Assembly elections in 2022.
Initially, maintaining a safe distance from the movement to avoid getting `political sponsored protest' tag, leaders of all major opposition parties are now not shying away from consolidating votes in their favour through farmers' agitation. Barring the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has largely been missing from action, most other opposition parties have registered their presence through the mahapanchayats particularly in the Western UP. Mayawati, however, made several tweets in support of the farmers' agitation, urging the BJP to immediately withdraw the three farm laws.
Sources say the political scenario in Western UP has dramatically turned against the BJP since the farmers' protests erupted as leaders of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU), All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) and other farmers' organisations have collectively said that the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-led BJP regime is "anti-farmer" for bringing in the three contentious farm laws. The Jat community in UP, dominant in the western part of the state, had shifted allegiance to the BJP in the past few elections. However, many now have turned against the saffron party, because they believe that the BJP is not willing to take back the farm laws against which they have been protesting for the past several months. The rise of Rakesh Tikait, a Jat leader and a member of the BKU, and his ability to mobilise thousands of farmers also suggests a change in the way the Jats perceive the BJP.
However, the BJP is well aware of the development and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has already started several welfare schemes besides ensuring that cane growers get their dues timely and the minimum support price (MSP) is strictly implemented for purchase of Rabi crop.
Senior BJP leaders believe that during the panchayat elections, the farmers, especially Jats, will ultimately support them and that the success in the panchayat elections will also demoralise the farmers leading to withdrawal of the agitation to force the Central government to withdraw the new farm laws. Besides, they believe that a victory in the panchayat elections will also push out the new agriculture laws from debate much before the assembly elections and Yogi Adityanath will retain power once again.
It may be mentioned that in view of coming panchayat elections and assembly polls early next year, UP Congress in-charge Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has visited several districts over the past few months and RLD vice-president Jayant Chaudhary has also taken centre stage as he visits village after village for rallies and mahapanchayats across the state. Even Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav joined Chaudhary in a joint mahapanchayat in Mathura. However, political analysts say that efforts by the Congress will not necessarily convert into votes and that the SP and RLD may be the biggest beneficiaries of the anger towards the BJP.