Uttar Pradesh is set to take centre stage in the run-up to 2019 Lok Sabha elections. As the state sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, the focus of all political parties — Bharatiya Janata Party, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Congress and other regional and smaller outfits — has now shifted to UP.
Political equations in the state are likely to change as the BSP, SP and Congress are looking for an alliance to take on the BJP in the country’s most populated state.
With elections over in five states and Congress emerging as a formidable challenger to the BJP after wresting three Central Indian states, the resurgent grand old party is set to make a big push for regaining ground in UP that it lost three decades ago after the rise of Mandal movement and Dalit resurgence.
Caste-based regional parties like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were earlier not interested in accommodating the Congress in the anti-BJP grand alliance for the 2019 general elections but with electoral luck smiling on the grand old party in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, they have grudgingly agreed to join hands with it.
The defeat in three Hindi speaking states has set the alarm bells ringing for the ruling BJP in UP where it is faced with the uphill task of repeating its 2014 performance in the 2019 elections.
Both SP and BSP were tough on the Congress, demanding a large number of seats in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, but have now fallen in line. Both realise that it will be difficult for them to protect their respective Muslim vote banks if they refuse to align with the Congress. With the Congress on a comeback trail in three states, both parties are under pressure and are forced to revisit their earlier stand.
The BSP extended its unconditional support to the Congress in the three Central Indian states, indicating that it is now ready to accommodate the grand old party in UP. The Congress has reciprocated by saying that like-minded parties would be taken on board, thereby preparing ground for the grand alliance.
So far, there has been no official word from BSP chief Mayawati about her party’s alliance with SP. In March this year, the SP and the BSP were keen on forging an alliance for 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The SP leaders are, however, confident that they have finalised the deal and it will be announced after consulting the Congress.
The grand alliance in UP will also give some space to Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal.
The stakes are definitely the highest for the BJP as it had secured 42 per cent votes and won 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats along with its allies in UP in 2014. Its victory of 2014 was consolidated in 2017 when the BJP stormed to power in UP with a mammoth mandate.
However, four back-to-back bypoll defeats in Gorakhpur, Phulpur, and Kairana Lok Sabha and Nurpur Assembly seats not only checkmated the surge of the saffron brigade but also dampened party workers’ morale.