A low 53 percent voting in the seven Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh that went to bypolls on November 3 has sent shock waves among all the political parties after reports that people in rural areas voted in large numbers as compared to urban parts of these constituencies.
“The election results are bound to give hiccups to the political parties because the low polling percentage and presence of all major political parties in the fray can spring surprises,” said Nomita P Kumar of the Giri Institute of Development Studies in Lucknow.
The polling percentage has come down by over 10 per cent as compared to the 2017 elections with the highest dip visible in Naugawan Sadat constituency in Amroha where in the 2017 election, the polling percentage was over 76 per cent while this time it was 61.50 per cent.
There are reports that villages have voted in large numbers as compared to urban areas thus giving sleepless nights to the Bharatiya Janata Party whose vote bank is more city-centric.
Kumar said the equations changed because the Bahujan Samaj Party also contested the bye-elections after many decades and the Congress was giving a fight to the main opponents like BJP and Samajwadi Party.
“In this scenario, it will be difficult to predict winners and losers,” she said.
The polling was held for the seven seats with 88 candidates in the fray. The BJP had won six out of these seven seats and the SP one in the 2017 elections.
“As the BJP had won the maximum number of these seats, the pressure would be on the ruling party to retain them. But the ground reality is different from 2017 and is bound to throw a different result,” social activist Brijesh Mishra said.
In the 2017 elections, the SP and the Congress had contested the polls in alliance. But this time they have contested separately. Besides, in Deoria, a rebel BJP candidate entered the fray while in Bangarmau and Ghatampur, Congress was likely to do well. Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati’s revelation about the secret deal with BJP had also made the election interesting as ground reports suggested that Muslims had shunned BSP and voted in favour of SP and Congress.
In some constituencies, people boycotted polling. In Tundla in Firozabad district, the villagers boycotted the by-election, alleging no development had taken place in their area. Chanting “vikas nahi to vote nahi” (no development, no vote), the voters at the Rudhau Mustkil booth number 30 boycotted the polling.
The by-elections were held in Malhani (Jaunpur), Tundla (Firozabad), Bulandshahr, Naugawan Sadat (Amroha), Ghatampur (Kanpur City), Bangarmau (Unnao), and Deoria. Of these, seats six were previously held by BJP while one (Malhani) by SP.
However, all the political parties have claimed victory in the by-elections. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav said that despite the BJP using the government machinery, it was all set to lose the election.
“It is the beginning of the end of Yogi Raj,” he said in a statement.