The bypolls at Kairana and Noorpur would be a litmus test for state BJP president Mahendra Nath Pandey as the results would decide whether he would continue in his post till 2019 lok Sabha elections or be replaced.
Voices of dissent have already started emanating from different quarters – including the party and government – as people who matter, believe that under his leadership, the party was yet to make its mark.
Some even complain that for Pandey, Uttar Pradesh was just Chandauli - the lok Sabha constituency which he represents in lok Sabha. They also charge him of travelling more to eastern UP than to the west and central parts of the state.
Tongues have started waging in the party after the BJP lost bypolls at Gorakhpur and Phulpur. Under Pandey’s stewardship, the BJP has contested three bypolls and only won Sikandara election held in December 2017.
But the defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur was shocking and it took away the sheen from Pandey’s armour which he gained after Sikandara bypoll victory.
The only saving grace for him was that the prestige of CM Yogi Adityanath and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya were at stake in Gorakhpur and Phulpur and thus the barbs were more pointed towards them than him.
The situation will be different in Kairana and Noorpur. Pandey’s organizational skill will be put to test in these bypolls, particularly in Kairana, which is hogging highlight as opposition unity has again been put to test in this battle of ballot.
A senior BJP leader said that the equations were very much against the BJP in Kairana. “The anger of Jat, non-payment of cane dues and unified opposition have made the work very difficult for the party. The CM addressed two rallies which has somewhat galvanized voters. But the high point is whether they would come out and vote on May 28,” he said.
Kairana comprises five Assembly segments of Nakur, Gangoh, Thana Bhawan, Shamli and Kairana. The lok Sabha constituency has 40 per cent minority votes and a large population of Gujjars - both Hindu and Muslim, numbering around 3 lakh. Backwards including Jat, Saini. Prajapati and Kashyap account for 4 lakh voters while there are over 1.5 lakh Dalit voters in the constituency.
The pro-BJP votes include upper caste and Gujar but they sum up to only 3.5 lakh votes.