The first phase elections in Uttar Pradesh covering the communal sensitive western parts will be a litmus test of the BJP and the BSP whereas this phase will give the first indication of the party emerging in the top in the state polls.
The so call Jatland and the sugar belt of the Northern India, covers some sensitive districts like Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Baghpat, Meerut, Etah, Agra, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Mathura.
The polling for the first phase would be held where Election Commission has made elaborate security arrangements in all the 73 Assembly seats in 15 districts of western UP, where polling for the first phase of elections would be held on Saturday. Over 2.59-crore electorate are expected to exercise their franchise through voting by electronic machines from 8 am to 5 pm at 14,514 polling stations.
The VVIP seats in the first phase would be Noida where Pankaj Singh, son of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and in Atrauli in Aligarh district Sandeep Singh, grandson of former UP CM Kalyan Singh would be vying for their maiden entry in the UP assembly. Similarly, Mriganka Singh, daughter of BJP MP Hukum Singh is also contesting her first elections from Kairana seat on BJP ticket.
There are more than 25 VVIP seats in the first phase where there is a tough contest of ballots. The Sardhana seat in Meerut and Thanabhawan seat in Shamli where Muzaffarnagar riot accused and BJP candidates Sangeet Singh Som and Suresh Rana respectively are trying their luck.
Congress legislature party leader Pradeep Mathur, a three time MlA from Mathura seat, has been challenged by BJP national spokesperson Srikant Sharma while Rahul Yadav, son- in-law of former Bihar Chief Minister lalu Prasad Yadav, is contesting on SP ticket from Sikandrabad seat in Gautam Buddha Nagar district. Former BJP UP president laxmikant Bajpai was also trying his luck from Meerut (city)
Though the muslims and jat population would be the deciding factor in the first phase of elections, the presence of RlD, there is possibility that the Jat votes could split between BJP and RlD . Similarly division of muslim votes is possible between BSP and the SP-Congress alliance.
The phase will witness some direct fight between the BJP and BSP but in several seats, the SP-Congress alliance and the Rashtriya lok Dal(RlD) could surprise the formidable contestants.
BSP, which had fielded 100 Muslim candidates in UP polls this time, was also eager to ride their elephant symbol on a new Dalit-Muslim combination and connecting it with Sarv Samaj.
The SP-Congress alliance was trying to dent into the Muslim and upper caste vote bank but confusion in their alliance was jeopardizing their chances. At least in three assembly segments in the first phase—Baldev in Mathura, Kol in Aligarh and Purkazi in Muzaffarnagar —have SP and Congress candidates contesting against each other.
But RlD of Ajit Singh, could play the spoilsport for BJP and the SP- Congress alliance as it can dent into the Jat as well as the Muslim vote bank to any extent.
Parties like AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi could impact the fate of the bigger parties and could spoil their run to the UP assembly. Owaisi campaigned in Muslim-dominated asking people to debunk SP and BSP.
In the 2012 Assembly polls, the results in these 73 assembly segments were 24 in favour of SP , 23 for BSP, 12 for BJP, nine for RlD and five for Congress. BJP, which won just 12 seats in 2012 assembly polls would be looking for repeat of its 2014 lok Sabha feat when it took lead in 60 seats and won all the lok Sabha seats except for Ferozabad.
CEO T Venketesh said that security forces held flag marches in sensitive areas to instil confidence among the voters. Special security measures have been made in the communally-sensitive districts — Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut, Ghaziabad, and Aligarh, Bulandhshar, Etah and Agra districts, he said.
Arial monitoring of the law and order during the polling would be done through chopper and drone fitted with cameras while almost all the booths would have video-recording and several would go for live coverage.