As the caste is set to play a decisive role in the last phase of election in eastern Uttar Pradesh where the prestige of senior BJP leaders is at stake, the question being asked is whether the ruling party will be able to retain its dominance in this region.
Another question being asked is whether Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will be able to win back Gorakhpur, which at one time was considered the safest seat for BJP, but it lost it to SP-BSP-RLD combine in the by-election in 2018. There is uncertainty over the future of two Union ministers, Manoj Sinha and Anupriya Patel, and BJP state president Mahendra Nath Pandey who are contesting from Ghazipur, Mirzapur and Chandauli, respectively.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fate will also be sealed in the seventh and last phase of Lok Sabha election In Varanasi on May 19 but he seems to be comfortably placed in the absence of credible opposition.
What will make the last phase election very interesting is presence of small caste-based parties and the sub-castes of the dominant backward and Scheduled Castes which have their area of influence and can tilt the balance of any political party.
In 2014, BJP was able to sweep this region by evolving a new social engineering formula under which the Most Backward Classes voted en bloc with upper castes like Brahmins, Thakurs and Vaishyas. The social engineering formula worked and BJP won seats spreading from Sonebhadra to Gorakhpur.
That bonhomie is missing in this edition of the Lok Sabha election. The situation is so bad that Om Prakash Rajbhar, who is Cabinet minister in the Yogi Adityanath government and heads Suheldeo Bhartiya Samaj Party, has fielded candidates of its own. Rajbhar declared that in Mirzapur, where Union Minister Anupriya Patel is in fray, the SBSP will support Congress. Lalitesh Pati Tripathi, grand son of Kamlapati Tripathi, is Congress candidate from Mirzapur while the SP-BSP-RLD alliance has fielded Ram Charita Nishad, a BJP MP who has switched side after he was denied ticket by ruling party.
The SBSP, which is contesting 25 seats, may not win a single seat but will end up as a spoil sport for BJP. The Rajbhars are dominant MBCs in eastern Uttar Pradesh. In 2017 elections, BJP swept the region because of alliance the party had stitched with this regional party. In 2019, the Rajbhars are out of the game plan of BJP and this is bound to affect its poll prospect.
Then there are Nishads, Binds, Kushwahas, Kewats and Mallahs who have their separate political identity and have formed small groups. Their influence may be limited to one or two constituencies but it is enough to topple any political party’s calculations.
In Gorakhpur, the contest is interesting because of presence of Nishad votes, who account for over 40 per cent of vote share. In 2018, BJP suffered first defeat in three decades here because the SP-BSP-RLD combine had fielded a Nishad candidate. In 2019 too, the alliance has fielded Ram Buwal Nishad while BJP is banking on the charisma of Bhojpuri star Ravi Kishan.
Will this time too the Nishads vote against BJP, only time will tell.
Election in this region is on May 19.