By-elections to Gorakhpur and Phulpur lok Sabha seats on Sunday are going to be an exciting contest as the stakes are high for both Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party. Results of the bypoll will prove whether Yogi's pick as Chief Minister and his hardline Hindutva position has been successful.
Yogi has already has emerged as the most important campaigner for the BJP after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Yogi himself is a five-time MP from Gorakhpur and his elevation as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh was an affirmation that the BJP planned to continue with the politics pursued by him during his 20 years in charge of the constituency.
Yogi will have t o ensure that the lotus bloomed in Gorakhpur for the consecutive ninth term. The BJP had been winning this lok Sabha seat since 1989 lok Sabha poll.
Complelled by the resurgent BJP, traditional rivals Samajwadi party and BSP were left with no option but to bury the hatchet and join hands. The BSP is not contesting the bypolls and extended its support to the SP. The poll outcome will be a major tests for the SP and BSP to assess the potential for their new bonhomie and judge the scope for a grand alliance ahead of 2019 lok Sabha elections.
Both the SP and the BSP debuted in politics three decades ago with identity politics comprising of strident casteist agenda. They contested the Assembly election in alliance in 1993 and the popular slogan was `Miley Mulayam-Kanshiram, Hawa mein Udh gaye ‘Jai Shri Ram’’
The alliance lasted for merely 18 months and ended with the infamous State Guest House incident in June, 1995 where goons of the SP attacked the then BSP general secretary Mayawati and abducted BSP MlAs.
Ever since both parties have graduated and have shunned exclusive identity politics and moved forward to `inclusive politics’ claiming to represent all sections of the society.
Both parties are now faced with Hobson's choice whether to revert to old agenda of identity politics and consolidate caste -based vote bank or stick to the present status of pursuing inclusive politics.
Choice is difficult for the BSP as it has covered a long distance from a pure casteist tagline of "Tilak, tarazu aur talwar, inko maro joote char" to the all-inclusive "Sarva samaj ke samman mein, Behenji maidan mein".
However, if the Samajwadi Party or the Congress manage to pip BJP to the post, the opposition is certain to claim that the electorate in UP was eager to see a change and was already tiring of polarising politics of the Yogi government.
The Congress is already painting the bypolls as a referendum on Yogi's policies. A Congress leader said, “People of UP are looking for a change and we are confident that voters in the by-elections will give a befitting reply to the BJP for their anti-people policies."
Of the two by polls, the BJP stronghold of Gorakhpur will be keenly watched by political decoders.
The SP has fielded Pravin Nishad from Gorakhpur and Nagendra Singh Patel from Phulpur. BSP chief Mayawati has decided to offer the party's support to the SP, but that needs to be taken in perspective as the party has traditionally never fielded candidates in bypoll unless it was in power.
So, the BSP's decision of supporting the SP comes as a win-win for everybody concerned. The SP gets the support of a bitter rival, while the BSP wasn't required to make any sacrifices either. And though Mayawati was quick to clarify that the party had no plans of tying up with any party, there are hopes already rising about a united coalition to take on the saffron behemoth.
The BJP has fielded former Varanasi Mayor Kaushalendra Singh Patel from Phulpur and seasoned organisational leader Upendra Shukla from Gorakhpur. The choice of Shukla is seen as an outreach by the party to Brahmins, who are the largest upper caste community in the state and have been the BJP's traditional vote bank