The Kairana bye-election is set to redefine the political spectrum of Uttar Pradesh as political parties of all hue have started ground work as election for this lok Sabha constituency could be announced in May and will be held by June this year.
The election is necessitated following death of senior BJP leader Hukum Singh. The BJP has already started floating the name of Mriganka Singh as possible candidate of the party. Mriganka is the daughter of Hukum Singh and had contested 2017 assembly election from Kairana but had lost the same to Samajwadi Party candidate.
The election also assumes important because it will test the unity for the opposition parties as it is likely to field a joint candidate. The opposition victory in Phulpur and Gorakhpur bye-elections has infused a new life into the opposition unity and it wants to replicate the same success formula in Kairana too. But the announcement by Mayawati that Bahujan Samaj Party will not contest any bye-election nor the party will `actively’ support opposition candidate may throw spanner in opposition unity move.
Though the Opposition parties have not named their joint candidate till date, there is speculation that RlD is pitching in for Jayant Chaudhry, national general secretary of the party for that seat. The RlD wants that Congress, Samajwadi and BSP should support its candidate because party holds sway in western Uttar Pradesh.
At one time this region used to be the pocket borough of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh who had put his AJGAR fprmula to test here. The AJGAR was a suggested caste alliance of the Ahir, Jat, Gujar and Rajput castes. These caste groups put together, in fact, made an unbeatable political force.
later M- Muslim was added to it and AJGAR became MAJGAR. This combination helped RlD win many elections in this region which made Chaudhry Charan Singh and his Ajit Singh a formidable force in Western Uttar Pradesh.
Much water has flown down the river since then. The “exodus controversy” has helped BJP to make inroads in this parliamentary constituency and rise of Hukum Singh from a legislator to MP was mercurial. In this context it will be a prestige issue for the BJP to retain this seat. Therefore, the party is trying to play an emotional card by fielding daughter of the Hukum Singh so that her charm can sway women.
On the other hand, the opposition by winning this seat will try to send the message that the days of BJP is numbered in Uttar Pradesh. This political slugfest could redefine political equation in UP.