With almost all political parties fielding Muslim candidates from majority of the assembly constituencies in western Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be smiling ear to ear, eyeing the prospect of a major division of Muslim votes in this region.
There are three important players who are eyeing Muslim votes -- Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen led by Asaduddin Owaisi.
Indications are that Muslims have made up their minds to vote for Samajwadi Party but the emergence of Muslim candidates representing other parties could impact the voting pattern.
“Local Muslim leaders have their areas of influence. A slight shift in the votes will have a definite impact on the outcome of the poll results,” said SP leader from Saharanpur, Mohammed Ilyas.
“The BSP and AIMIM have fielded Muslim candidates in various constituencies of western Uttar Pradesh to harm SP. From what we see, there is a possibility of division of Muslim votes. If you look at the division of Muslim votes in the context of BJP raising religious pitch leading to the consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of one party, the Muslims will suffer again. When the division of Muslim votes is less, more Muslim candidates win elections,” he said.
To buttress his point, Ilyas said that in the 2012 elections when Muslims voted en masse for the SP, 68 Muslim legislators were elected but in 2017 elections, this number fell to 23, mainly because of the division of Muslim votes.
Saharanpur has 41.95 per cent Muslims and 21 per cent Dalits. In the 2012 elections, of the seven assembly seats in Saharanpur, four were won by BSP and one each by the BJP, Congress and SP. “In 2017, because of Hindu polarisation, the BJP won four seats, including Deoband, with two going to the Congress, and one to the SP,” he said.
Political pundits believe that with political parties fielding Muslim candidates, the division of Muslim votes is imminent. Take the case of Behat assembly constituency where the BSP has fielded Rais Malik while the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance has fielded Umar Malik Khan. The AIMIM has also fielded Amzad Ali as its candidate.
Similarly in Dhaulana seat, BSP has fielded Wasim Pradhan, SP-RLD Aslam Ali and AIMIM Haji Aarif as their respective candidates. In Siwalkhas the BSP has given ticket to Mukarram Ali, SP-RLD alliance to Gulam Mohammad, and AIMIM to Rafat Khan.
In some seats, BSP and SP-RLD have fielded Muslim candidates. Like in Nazibabad, the BSP has fielded Shanawaz Alam while SP has named Taslim Ahmad as its candidate. In Thakurdwara constituency, BSP’s candidate is Mujahid Ali while the SP has fielded Nawabjaan. In Chamrauwa, the BSP has named Abdul Musataf Hussain as a candidate while Nasir Ahmad is the SP candidate. Md Naved Ayaz has been fielded by the BSP from Amroha while the SP has fielded Mehboob Ali. In Meerut West, BSP’s candidate is Dilshad Ali while the SP has fielded Mohammed Adil.
Similar contests between Muslim candidates are possible in Kol, Aligarh, Moradabad City, Moradabad Rural, Nakud, Kundarki and Loni assembly constituencies.
The records of the Election Commission of India indicate that there are 70 constituencies where Muslim population is between 20 per cent and 30 per cent, while 43 seats have more than 30 per cent Muslims. There are 36 seats where Muslim candidates win elections and 107 seats where Muslim votes decide the winner or loser. Besides, there are 143 seats where Muslims have considerable impact.
In seats of western UP like Meerut Sadar, Rampur Sadar, Sambhal, Moradabad Rural, Kundrati, Amroha City, Dhaulana, Behat and Saharanpur Rural, Muslim voters call the shots. The importance of these voters can be gauged from the fact that in Rampur, the Muslim population is more than 50 per cent, followed by Moradabad (47.12 per cent) and Bijnor (43.04 per cent)