The by-elections to the Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha seats have emerged as a litmus test for the Yogi Adityanath-led government after being voted to power for a second time in March .
Chief minister Yogi Adityanath campaigned in Azamgarh on Sunday. Both the constituencies go to polls on June 23.
Obvious comparison is being drawn from the previous by-elections to two Lok Sabha seats – Gorakhpur and Phulpur – in 2018. Both the seats were held by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party but its candidates were trounced by the Samajwadi Party backed by Bahujan Samaj Party in the bypoll.
This time it is different as both the Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha seats were held by Samajwadi Party and it faces the challenge of retaining both seats. Both seats are considered Samajwadi Party bastions and the ruling BJP has never won them. Now, the June 23 by-elections for these seats have emerged as a key test for the Yogi Adityanath-led government after assuming office for a second time.
“The enthusiasm generated by the Samajwadi Party victories in Gorakhpur and Phulpur was very short-lived as within one year the SP, even after having alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, lost both the seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections,” a political analyst said.
“Even if the SP is able to retain both Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha seats, the party will gain very little except the consolation that it has retained its ground,” he added.
The Samajwadi Party has fielded Mohammad Azam Khan’s associate Asim Raja from Rampur instead of Azam Khan’s wife Tazeen Fatma, as was speculated earlier. Samajwadi Party sources maintain that their party chief Akhilesh Yadav had left it to the discretion of Azam Khan to decide the candidate for Rampur seat.
“Even if the Samajwadi Party retains both the seats, the gains are not going to count much even as the party has established itself as number two political force in UP by winning 111 seats in the recent UP assembly elections,” said analyst Dr AK Verma .
Elaborating on the crisis of the Samajwadi Party, Dr Verma said, “Samajwadi Party has nothing to project as its distinct political identity to challenge the overwhelming presence of the BJP after winning four consecutive elections -- the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2017 and 2022 UP assembly elections.”
“Samajwadi Party owes its existence to the anti-Congress movement of Ram Manohar Lohia in the 1960s. This party has lost this identity after Mulayam Singh Yadav saved his minority government in November 1990 with the outside support of the Congress. Later in 1993, Mulayam Singh Yadav, heading the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party pre-poll alliance, formed the government with the support of the Congress,” Dr Verma said.
“What Akhilesh Yadav did in 2017 was the last straw on the camel’s back as he entered into an alliance with the Congress and left 125 seats for the grand old party. The alliance fared very badly for both the parties as the SP’s tally was reduced to 47 and Congress to single digit. Mulayam Singh Yadav had vehemently opposed this alliance but Akhilesh Yadav ignored the objections,” he pointed out.
“Having lost a key component of the political identity of his party by flirting with the Congress, Akhilesh Yadav is left with no option but to keep attacking the BJP on law and order and other myriad issues. Samajwadi Party has singularly failed to craft a credible alternate political narrative to counter the overwhelming dominance of the BJP in the most populous state of India,” Dr Verma said.
Elaborating on the ideological crisis faced by the Samajwadi Party, Dr Verma said, “Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav, for the lack of credible political narrative, is attacking the BJP government in UP every day on law and order, three agriculture related laws, pandemic and unemployment. Akhilesh Yadav has to excessively rely on the past as he keeps repeating the development works done during his tenure as chief minister, including the state secretariat building Lok Bhawan and state police headquarters in Lucknow.”
Dr Verma added, “Samajwadi Party has to reinvent itself if it wants to remain politically relevant after the 2024 Lok Sabha election.