The targeted elimination of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri in downtown Kabul on Sunday by the US is likely to trigger a bid by its affiliates in India and elsewhere to carry out attacks to re-register their presence and keep the flock together besides pushing for a recruitment overdrive to counter the competing ISIS.
The development has also fuelled the race for occupation of the top post of the terror grouping, counter-terrorism experts and security analysts said.
On the geopolitical front, Zawahiri’s killing by the US is an indication to its adversaries that similar operations could be carried against other countries or entities which seek to harm American interests by collaborating with the Taliban, they said.
Germany-based counter-terrorism expert of Afghan origin, Dr Ajmal Sohail said, “The timing of Al Zawahiri’s liquidation suggests the US administration is seeking to ramp its prospects ahead of the midterm elections back home. The US has also established that despite there being no boots on the ground, its capability to target the anti-US terror masterminds on the ground continues. The action also displays the American capacity to have a sustained air superiority to target inimical elements without attaining any casualty.”
While there could be a setback to the Al Qaeda in the short run as Zawahiri, essentially an ideologue, was not effectively at the helm of affairs of the outfit due to ailing health but the development would in fact lead to a younger leadership taking the reins of the outfit and rejuvenate its operational terror agenda globally, he said.
On the likely successor of the global terror group post the killing of Zawahiri, former Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s son Abdullah bin Laden and Obaidu Rahman Al-Quiti the son of deceased Abu Ahmad Al-Quiti who was the right hand man of Bin Laden when he was killed in 2011 in Abottabad in Pakistan, he added.
“In the last three years, Zawahiri had articulated his stand against revocation of Article 370 from the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir, Ram Temple issue and lynchings besides the hijab row in Karnataka, counter-terrorism expert and security analyst Dr Rituraj Mate told The Pioneer.
The Al Qaeda affiliate in India--Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)-is estimated to be already preparing to carry out attacks as a module was only last week busted from Assam, Dr Mate said.
The likely impact of Zawahiri’s killing is expected to be felt either in Bangladesh where the outfit has a significant base or the bordering Northeastern India. The hardline elements within the AQ hierarchy might push for spectacular attacks in Bangladesh, he said.
The attacks by the AQ will also help galvanise the cadres on the fringes looking for an opportunity to join the ISIS.On the face of a further weakened Al Qaeda, the ISIS is likely to target people whom they perceive close to the Al Qaeda, he said.
For running a global campaign against the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, Zawahiri’s cohort Bilal Philips of Canadian origin and based in the United Kingdom had started an NGO for gathering funds for the purpose. A large part of the funds were used to support the protests against the abrogation of Article 370 in several countries; some portion might also have been pumped in Jammu and Kashmir, he added.