The Samajwadi Party, otherwise unconquered in the last five lok Sabha election from Badaun parliamentary constituency, is feeling the heat this time as its formidable Yadav-Muslim combination is facing a severe challenge.
The stakes are rather high because apparently the prestige of the family is at stake with the nephew of SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav — Dharmendra Yadav — as the incumbent sitting MP from the same constituency.
Top Yadav leaders, including party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and other family members, have addressed several election meetings in the constituency which shows the significance of this seat for Yadav clan.
Dharmendra, who had won the last election by a margin of about 32,000 votes defeating his nearest rival muscleman DP Yadav, may not win just as smoothly this time as he is being given a tough time by BSP’s Akmal Beg, the lone Muslim candidate in the fray. If Muslims decide to vote for Beg the BSP candidate will be at advantageous position because he enjoys the support of Dalits.
Of the total electorate of about 17.4 lakh, Yadav contributed to about four lakh while Muslims’ share is 3.5 lakh. In an ideal situation, the SP, with its traditional vote bank of Yadavs would have sailed through. But the scenario is different now. The party is already under fire over Muzaffarnagar riots and therefore their support is not taken for granted.
Badaun seat, which has sent the stalwarts like Sharad Yadav and Swami Chinmayanad to lok Sabha, may have supported the SP since 1996 when Salim Sherwani won the election in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2003 in a row but the trend may reverse this time.
Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded Vageesh Pathak, the former custom official, as its candidate while the Congress has left the seat for Mahan Dal which has pitched in Paglanand as its candidate. Though Hema Mehra, the AAP candidate, is also in the fray but the main contest will be seen among the SP, BSP and BJP.
As the political analysts feel, the popularity of the SP is on wane, the test case will be on Badaun seat when it goes to poll on April 17. All the theoretical equations are in the favour of the SP but in practicality, the party is in a tight spot here.