Why western UP is crucial for all

Western Uttar Pradesh was never considered the Samajwadi Party’s forte. Moreover, the Akhilesh regime has witnessed much turmoil in this region and it all started with Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013 followed with reported exodus of Hindus from Kairana and Shamli. The Jwaharbagh incident in Mathura was like an ugly wart that slowly tilted the Muslim vote bank towards the BSP.

However, things changed in the last few weeks when the Congress entered into an alliance with the SP.

As Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh started holding joint rallies and roadshows, the confidence is back not only among the leaders but also among the voters — particularly the youth — who have started aligning themselves with these two leaders. Even Muslims have started feeling that only this alliance has the capability to stop BJP.

Western UP, comprising 142 Assembly constituencies, is crucial for all the parties primarily because polling for this politically sensitive State starts from here. Also, it is said whoever wins western UP will sweep the State. Believing this political jargon as a gospel truth, the BJP has started its campaign months ahead.

Poll strategist Amit Shah was out to get caste calculations right in favour of the BJP.

The party is relying heavily on combination of Jats and Jatavs — considered a lethal combination in this region. The OBCs (other Backward Castes) and MBCs (most Backward Castes), who faced humiliation during the Akhilesh regime for its pro-Yadav stance, were lured towards the BJP, said political experts. Over and above the party used leaders like Yogi Adityanath to campaign.

Yogi poured vitriol by saying that if BJP loses in the State, this region will be turned into another Kashmir. How exactly the parties stand in this region.

SP-CONGRESS AllIANCE

• It started unsteadily but slowly has gained confidence of people. The surging crowd in Agra roadshow proved beyond doubt that the alliance has made its mark
• Muslims have always remained loyal to the SP. But their confidence was shaken following a few incidents that led to communal skirmishes. Muslims now see this alliance as a better bet to stop Modi’s march. There is a perception if Modi can win UP no one can stop BJP from coming to power in 2019. This fear has pushed Muslims further towards this alliance
• SP Muslim mascot Azam Khan is weaning Muslims away from the BSP by spreading fear that post election BSP will join hands with BJP
• Before 1989, Dalits were big supporters of the Congress. However, the emergence of Mayawati and Kashi Ram has pushed them towards BSP. Over 40 per cent of voters in this area are Dalits, who too have shown inclination towards this new alliance

BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY

• The BJP has pinned its hope  on Jats who had voted for the party en-bloc in 2014 elections and had supported it in 2012 Assembly polls too. Murmur of Jat reservation in neighbouring Haryana has made BJP leaders nervous as Jats of UP have also started asking for quota
• This time Jat support is thinning because of RlD factor
• It is heavily relying on the division of votes
• Charged speeches are being given by leaders like Yogi Adityanath
• Division of votes on communal line will held BJP to sweep western UP as it did in 2014
• The BJP’s chances can be jeopardised by rebel party candidates who after being denied tickets are contesting on RlD ticket
• Notebandi will hit BJP hard in this area because many mills and factories have closed down rendering youth jobless. They are now waiting to take revenge

BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY

• The BSP is banking on its Dalit-Muslim and is connecting it with Sarv Samaj. This is done with an eye on upper caste
• The party has set up Bhaichara committees prominent being the Muslim Bhaichara committee that is holding meetings in almost all mohallas for the last six months. Mayawati is relying on on word of mouth campaigns
• The BSP has fielded 67 Muslims in western UP out of 100 candidates put up by the party across Uttar Pradesh. Mayawati is projecting BSP as Muslim-friendly party
• Sugarcane is a big issue here. Mayawati has been claiming how her Government had raised purchase price by up to Rs50 per quintal against negligible increase by the Akhilesh Yadav Government

RASHTRIYA lOK DAl

• Ajit Singh, could play the spoilsport for BJP and BSP as his RlD can dent into the Jat as well as the Muslim vote bank
• The elderly Jats are still Ajit Singh’s ‘bhakt’ as they consider him as messiah in the Jatland. RlD’s aim seems to defeat the BJP. Their leaders know that they cannot win much seats but are capable to damage BJP. That’s what they are aiming at
• The RlD has gained at the expense of the BJP and the SP. Many of the rebels of both these parties are contesting on RlD tickets. The party has got good candidates who have their own vote base