The Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections would surpass the halfway mark on December 9 when the fate of 138 candidates would be sealed in the circuits of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).
The third of the five-phased election is crucial as it is held exclusively in 16 constituencies — which fall in three interconnected districts of the Valley — Baramulla, Budgam and Pulwama. Many parts of these districts are harboruing separatism and militancy and the recent spurt in violence in and around the poll-bound constituencies has turned the situation rather precarious.
The first two phases of elections — held on November 25 and December 2 — passed out smoothly for the authorities. It was presumed that the large voter turnout would set the tone for the upcoming phases.
However, militants attempted to throw spanners as the focus has shifted to Pulwama-Budgam-Baramulla sector. First, two elected village representatives were shot at in Shopian (one of them died), then a CRPF party was attacked near Pahoo near Pulwama killing a junior officer and wounding seven others.
The level of violence took a sudden jump on December 5 when militants hit at four places, including the two poll-bound areas of Uri and Tral. Twenty-one persons-8 soldiers, three policemen, eight militants and two civilians died in these incidents.
Interestingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wil arrive to address his maiden public rally in Srinagar on December 8, a day before the third phase of polls. Both occasions have thrown a tough challenge for the security establishment to maintain order in the Valley.
Nevertheless, the election campaign that ended on Sunday evening bore little impact of the sudden spurt in violence. Barring Tral constituency where mysterious grenade explosion killed two civilians and injured a dozen others, the campaign attracted substantial public interest, an indication of moderate to high turnout on Tuesday.
The third phase of elections would be crucial for the People’s Democratic (PDP) Party and the ruling National Conference (NC). Out of these 16 seats, PDP had captured 9 seats in the 2008 elections with clean sweep in district Pulwama. The NC had 4 seats and Congress, Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) and Democratic Party (Nationalist) had won Uri, Khansahib and Gulmarg segments respectively.
“The PDP is trying hard to improve its tally. If the third phase gives PDP more than a dozen seats, it would catapult the party to a dominating position in the Government formation,” said a senior journalist Jeelani Qadri.
The most interesting battle would be observed in Beerwah constituency of Budgam district where Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting against incumbent PDP legislator Dr Shafi Ahmad Banday. Abdullah relinquished his family bastion Ganderbal to contest from Beerwah and Sonwar. The Chief Minister is banking upon ineffectiveness of the PDP legislator, a sizeable chunk of Shia population that has allegiance with NC-loyalist Aga clan of Budgam and some developmental projects initiated by the NC regime during the past six years. However, observers say that Congress candidate Nazir Ahmad Khan may spring a surprise in the constituency. Khan, son of a former minister has relentlessly worked in the constituency for past 15 years.
The December 9 elections would also decide the fate of Congress Minister Taj Mohiuddin in Uri who is caught in a triangular contest with NC’s Muhammad Shafi and PDP Raja Ajaz Ali. Mohiuddin, has retained the seat since 2002 ending Shafi’s decades long hegemony over the border segment. This time, the polarization of votes on caste basis would play a major role in Uri.
Observers say that Chrar-e-Sharief constituency in Budgam is also likely to offer a tough contest. The seat is an NC bastion since 1972 when incumbent legislator and Finance Minister Abdur Rahim Rather won his first election. He has retained the seat ever after. During the lok Sabha polls, however, Rather’s ground appeared to be shaking as his party candidate Dr Farooq Abdullah polled fewer votes than his PDP rival in the area. Though Rather has worked relentlessly to reconnect with voters after the lok Sabha shocker, he would not have the luxury of sound sleep after the electors deposit their verdict.
The PDP would have easily added Rafiabad constituency into its kitty had it not faced an unforeseen catastrophe. Its nominated candidate Dilawar Mir, who lost the previous election with a whisker, was poised to bounce back but before he could have filed his nomination papers, he was convicted by a Delhi Court for a fraud case. Mir, who stepped down as PDP’s General Secretary, has now fielded his son Yawar to take on incumbent legislator Javed Dar of NC and Congress candidate Abdul Gani Vakil.
In Gulmarg and Khansahib, non-NC non-PDP candidates Ghulam Hassan Mir and Hakim Muhammad Yasin are fighting their battle of existence against the PDP candidates. Both Mir and Yasin have retained their seats since 2002 elections.
In Pulwama district’s four constituencies, the PDP candidates are almost in direct contest with their NC rivals. The PDP introduced former J&K Bank Chairman Dr Haseeb Drabu in Rajpura constituency.
Drabu faced party rebellion when the incumbent legislator Syed Bashir quit the party to contest as independent candidate. However, Drabu’s main contest is with NC’s Mohiuddin Mir, who has represented the segment in 1996. Drabu has impressed many a youngsters in the constituency on his newest ideas in employment, industrialization and investment.
However, in saffron soil of Pampore, the PDP is on a sticky wicket. The NC’s youthful candidate Yawar Masoodi has made inroads into the PDP bastion through his massive contact with the common people. Masoodi belongs to an influential family who survived an assassination bid during lok Sabha polls.
Observers say that while moderate to high polling is likely in most of the constituencies, it would be interesting to watch as to how electors in Tral and Sopore segments would respond to the polls. The recent attacks, separatists’ call for boycott and official apathy towards these segments have their impact on the final turnout.