Taking a cue from the lessons learnt in the 2016 Assembly elections, a major churning process is on in Tamil Nadu as political parties are re-working their strategies for the upcoming local body election as well as the 2019 lok Sabha election.
“The AIADMK which took a calculated but risky decision to go it alone in the 2016 May Assembly election will not venture out into electoral politics without any allies. Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is reworking her tactics,” said N Kalyanasundaram, a chronicler of Tamil Nadu politics. He said the Peoples Welfare Front, the six-party rainbow alliance, had gone bust. “That alliance is an old story and none of them would even like to think about the past,” he said..
Thol Thirumavalavan, the VCK leader, has given enough hints about the possible changes that would take place in the PWF. “The DMDK cadre could not gel up well with the VCK cadre,” Thrumavalavan told reporters immediately after the poll debacle.
A CPI(M) insider said the choice of Vijayakanth as Chief Ministerial candidate was a wrong decision. “We always were of the view that Thirumavalavan would have been the ideal candidate for the post of Chief Minister,” said the leader. If the views of the CPI and CPI(M) are read together, an alliance featuring CPI, CPI(M) and VCK would sail together in the future.
“The DMDK, Tamil Manila Congress and the MDMK have a different genetic structure from ours. We are not sure whether they will be there with us in future,” said a CPI leader.
According to Kalyanasundaram, the AIADMK could forge an alliance with the CPI, CPI(M) and the VCK in the coming days. “They are not strangers to Jayalalithaa and there is no bad blood between them. I am sure AIADMK will launch an alliance which include these parties for the 2019 election,” he said. The AIADMK and lefts parted just before the 2014 lok Sabha election as friends. The ties could be revived at any point of time.
“The DMK-Congress alliance would continue and some more entities too may join it. The possibility of Vijayakant joining the DMK front could not be ruled out,” he said.
The general feeling in Tamil Nadu is that the MDMK-led by Vaiko and the DMDK are likely to get further weakened as the cadre will soon start their migration either to the DMK or the AIADMK. “Same is the case with Tamil Manila Congress. Chances are that the entire cadre may soon start their home-bound journey, back to the Congress,” said Kalyanasundaram.
Prakash M Swamy, scribe-turned-political commentator is of the view that the remnants of the PWF would soon align with Jayalalithaa. “Except Vijayakant, whose stock has crashed in the political arena, all the remaining constituents of the PWF will join hands with Jayalalithaa. The important point to note is that the lefts are willing to align with anybody to keep the BJP away. Since Jayalalithaa has kept a safe distance from the BJP, the orphaned PWF san the DMDK will definitely pitch for a tie-up with the AIADMK,” said Swamy.
But another political analyst who rightly forecast the 2016 election results said 2019 is still far away and anything could happen in the coming months itself. “In politics, even a day is a long period. We have to cross many political events before reaching destination 2019,” he said.