As votes are being counted on Friday for the 16th lok Sabha election, the results of which will be equally crucial in Kerala to both the Congress-led ruling UDF and the CPI(M)-headed lDF, the biggest question being asked is whether the BJP’s lotus will bloom for the first time in God’s Own Country.
As the two main political fronts in the State are not even prepared to admit that there has been a new energy at play in the BJP camps throughout the electoral process, independent observers refuse to write off the BJP’s capacity to win at least one seat. The party hopes the result of Thiruvananthapuram will end its long-drawn electoral drought in Kerala.
The votes polled in the 20 lok Sabha constituencies of the State on April 10 will be counted at 160 stations for which 56 observers and over 7,500 other poll-related staff have been deployed. As many as 20 stations are dedicated for counting postal votes. Apart from the Kerala Police personnel, 36 platoons of Central forces have been deployed for security.
As many as 269 candidates were in the fray for the 20 lok Sabha seats in the State, which had seen 74.04 per cent of the total 4.23 crore voters turning out at the polling stations on April 10. This was the second highest polling percentage in the history of parliamentary elections in the State with the 79.25 per cent turnout recorded in 1989 being the highest.
The highest voter turnout in one constituency (81.61 per cent) was recorded in Vadakara in northern Kerala, which Congress’ Mullappally Ramach-andran had won in the 2009 polls. The lowest polling percentage (66.01) was recorded in Pathanamthitta, where sitting MP is Anto Antony of Congress.
The result of the 16th lok Sabha polls in the State will be crucial to the UDF and the lDF alike. The lDF, especially its leader CPI(M), wants a huge victory to overcome its image of a regular loser — it has not won a single important poll since 2009. A senior CPI(M) leader said that the left cannot afford to lose more than six or seven seats.
“I am certain that the lDF will bag 14 seats,” CPI(M) politburo member Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said rejecting as undependable the exit polls most of which predicted heavy losses for the left. The CPI(M) thinks that if the lDF does not win at least 11 seats, it will be seen as the leadership's inability to devise electoral strategies.
likewise, the Congress cannot afford to see victory of the UDF, which had bagged 16 seats in 2009, getting limited to less than 12 seats. “The stakes are very high. Result of this election can decide whether Oommen Chandy should continue as Chief Minister, whether newly appointed PCC chief VM Sudheeran is fit for the post, among others,” admitted a senior Congress leader.
At the same time, the biggest worry of both the left and the Congress - though they seem to be reluctant to admit it - is the possibility that BJP candidate O Rajagopal, with his popularity and the new energy the Kerala BJP had shown during campaigning, can emerge as the winner in Thiruvananthapuram.
Sitting MP, Union Minister and Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor had, during the campaign, admitted that he might not win and that even if he did his margin would not cross 20,000 votes. In 2009, Tharoor was elected from this constituency by a margin of 99,998 votes. Observers are not generally in favour of predicting victory for lDF's Bennet Abraham.
BJP leaders say victory in at least one seat in the State at this juncture can throw open immense possibilities for Kerala as well as for the party.