Several political storms have hit Kerala since the Congress-led UDF came to power by winning 72 of the total 140 Assembly seats in the 2011 election but recent surveys on the possible outcome of the 2014 lok Sabha election show that these developments have not been powerful enough to sway the mood of the electorate in a big way.
Two recent surveys, one by Times Now-CVoter and the other by Asianet News-C fore, show that the two political fronts — UDF and CPI(M)-led Opposition lDF, are set to share the 20 Parliament seats in the State almost equally between them as they had done in the last Assembly election. The BJP had reason to feel happy in the finding of the Times Now survey published eight days ago as it saw the possibility of the party opening account in Kerala but the Asianet News survey result which came out on Saturday evening limited that joy to mere relief by predicting that the BJP might improve its performance but not win a seat.
While the Times Now survey had predicted the UDF and lDF to win ten and nine seats respectively, the Asianet News exercise expects the UDF to bag eleven seats and the left to win in nine constituencies. The former survey had forecast BJP victory in one seat but the latter sees no such possibility. “It suggests that developments like the brutal murder of (rebel Marxist leader) TP Chandrasekharan and the infamous solar power scam, which had set off political storms in Kerala, have not had any big impact on the electorate. It also suggests that Keralites are now more worried about issues that affect them materially,” said journalist PVS Warrier.
The findings of the surveys do not bring much cheer to the left which has been hoping that an anti-incumbency sentiment against the UDF and a negative reaction to the UPA’s several scams could work in their favour. However, there is bad news for the Congress also in the findings as it may witness a huge loss in terms of number of seats. According to the Asianet News survey, the Congress may win only eight seats while in the 2009 polls it had bagged 13 seats. At the same time, the number of seats in the kitty of the CPI(M) is expected to go up from the present four to eight. The CPI, which had drawn a blank in 2009, is may win one seat, Thrissur, in the coming polls, as per this survey.
Both Times Now and Asianet News surveys expect the allies of the Congress in the UDF to retain the seats they had won in 2009. The Muslim league, second biggest UDF partner, is set o retain its two seats — Ponnani and Malappuram - while the Kerala Congress (M) is expected to keep its Kottayam seat. However, the biggest stunner in the Asianet News survey is the finding that the CPI(M) may wrest back from the Congress the Vadakara seat which included Onchiyam region, the base of the RMP of TP Chandrasekharan over whose murder the Marxists are presently facing one of the worst negative campaigns they have ever faced.
The survey brings bad news for the UDF in terms of vote-share which is expected to fall to 44.05 per cent in the coming election from the 47.73 percent it had got in 2009. The survey expects the vote-share of the lDF to go up to 42.35 percent from the 41.89 per cent it got in 2009. The BJP’s vote-share is expected to rise to 10.5 per cent from the 2009 share of 6.31 per cent.