In a big boost to the plans of the BJP of not just “opening account” in the Kerala Assembly but also of playing a decisive role in the State’s legislative process with the May 16 election, a pre-poll survey has predicted that the party-led NDA may win three to five seats out of the total 140 but BJP leaders said the party was capable of attaining a better victory level than this.
The survey carried out by Asianet News TV channel and C fore between April 7 and 18 — after the battle lines had become amply clear with the finalisation of candidates — by interviewing 45,779 voters predicted that the CPI(M)-led lDF would come to power in Kerala by winning 75 to 81 seats while the Congress-led ruling UDF would be reduced to just 56 to 62 seats.
The survey result said that the lDF might claim a vote-share of 40 per cent while the UDF could get 37 per cent votes and the NDA 18 per cent. The result of this survey was more or less in agreement with that of the exercise Asianet TV and C Fore themselves had carried out between February 1 and 12, during the first phase of preparation for the polls.
The main reason for the predicted poll debacle for the UDF according to the survey will not be any shortcomings in the performance of the Government led by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy but the serious allegations of corruption and immorality against its leaders including Ministers and the fielding of graft-accused leaders as candidates.
“The survey result that the BJP-NDA will open account in the Assembly is only an indication of how the poll result is going to be but that may not be the whole truth,” said State BJP president Kummanam Rajasekharan. “The BJP is capable of winning more seats. Surprising developments are going to be witnessed in this election,” he added.
While left front leaders welcomed the trend shown in the findings of the survey but claimed that the front would get more than 100 seats, Chief Minister Chandy said that survey results and the mood of the people were different but State Congress president VM Sudheeran said the predictions were worth studying.
As per the survey, the lDF will dominate in northern and southern Kerala regions while the UDF will get an upper hand in the central region and up to three seats of the total five predicted for the BJP may come from the northern region. The region-wise results projection also is in agreement with that found in the survey held earlier.
However, the most surprising prediction of the survey is that the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), a party of the majority communities in the State and the major ally of the BJP, may not have any impact at all in the polls. The BJP is depending heavily on the BDJS for putting up a stunning performance in the Kerala Assembly election.
Though the survey has predicted clear defeat for the Congress and the UDF, 46 percent of the respondents had rated the performance of Chandy as Chief Minister as average, 13 percent as good and five percent as very good. Similarly, 39 percent of them had rated the performance of the UDF Government as average.
Also, 29 percent of the respondents had opted for Chandy for the Chief Minister’s post while only 26 percent had supported Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan in this aspect. All these findings made it amply clear that the UDF may lose the election not because of any problems in performance but the anti-incumbency factor was stemming from graft charges.
Though BJP leaders are not satisfied with the survey’s findings, the party looked poised to maintain the 18 percent vote-share projected for it — the party had got only a 6.03-percent vote-share in 2011 Assembly election — across Kerala. “But even with 18-percent vote-share projection, the party is certain to get more seats than five,” said a top BJP leader.